Thu, Oct 13, 2016·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Winnipeg Jets 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 110 | 211 | 15 | 01 | 427 |
| WPG | 16 | 07 | 312 | 11 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:14WPGShawn MatthiasAssists: Toby Enstrom, Bryan Little · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 11:23CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Lee Stempniak · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–1
- P2 4:47CARLee StempniakPPAssists: Noah Hanifin, Jeff Skinner · Deflected, 0.19 xG2–1
- P2 19:29CARJordan StaalUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–1
- P3 5:02CARVictor RaskPPAssists: Justin Faulk, Sebastian Aho · Snap, 0.06 xG4–1
- P3 5:11WPGBlake WheelerSHUnassisted · Snap, 0.07 xG4–2
- P3 13:33WPGPatrik LainePPAssists: Toby Enstrom, Kyle Connor · Snap, 0.04 xG4–3
- P3 18:31WPGMathieu PerreaultAssists: Blake Wheeler, Patrik Laine · Deflected, 0.12 xG4–4
- OT 2:41WPGMark ScheifeleGWGAssists: Blake Wheeler · Snap, 0.15 xG4–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 7:51CARSebastian Aho: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:02CARJordan Staal: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:26CARRon Hainsey: Interference2 min
- P2 4:15WPGShawn Matthias: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:39CARJustin Faulk: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 13:39WPGMark Scheifele: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:26WPGBlake Wheeler: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:05WPGDrew Stafford: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 5:02WPGBen Chiarot: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:43CARJoakim Nordstrom: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStempniak – Skinner – Rask10:21
xG 1.34–0.18 (88%)attempts 17–4goals 1–0
- McClement – Bickell – Stalberg6:11
xG 0.34–0.13 (72%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Lindholm – Aho8:53
xG 0.03–0.36 (8%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Staal – Nestrasil – Nordstrom9:09
xG 0.06–0.63 (9%)attempts 3–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Slavin15:39
xG 0.99–0.38 (72%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Hainsey – Pesce14:21
xG 0.52–0.52 (50%)attempts 15–12goals 0–1
- Dahlbeck – Hanifin10:24
xG 0.41–0.42 (49%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestStafford – Matthias – Lowry6:56
xG 0.29–0.05 (86%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Laine2:29
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Lowry – Armia – Tanev3:33
xG 0.02–0.14 (12%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Perreault – Connor – Laine10:41
xG 0.60–0.72 (45%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Myers15:58
xG 0.60–0.49 (55%)attempts 15–17goals 1–0
- Byfuglien – Chiarot2:49
xG 0.18–0.12 (61%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
- Postma – Chiarot8:24
xG 0.29–0.26 (53%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).