Fri, Oct 14, 2016·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Chicago Blackhawks 2, Nashville Predators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 25 | 06 | 013 | 224 |
| NSH | 211 | 110 | 06 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:39CHIMarcus KrugerAssists: Ryan Hartman, Marian Hossa · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 7:46NSHP.K. SubbanPPAssists: Ryan Johansen, Filip Forsberg · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 9:51CHINiklas HjalmarssonAssists: Duncan Keith, Richard Panik · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–1
- P1 16:33NSHRoman JosiPPAssists: Ryan Johansen, Mike Fisher · Snap, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 16:36NSHMike FisherPPGWGAssists: Roman Josi, Ryan Johansen · Tip-in, 0.22 xG2–3
Penalties (16)
- P1 6:18CHIBrian Campbell: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 13:28NSHMike Fisher: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:06CHIJonathan Toews: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P1 18:29CHINick Schmaltz: Holding2 min
- P2 5:21CHIJordin Tootoo: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:21NSHAnthony Bitetto: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:04CHIArtem Anisimov: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:40CHIJonathan Toews: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:40NSHJames Neal: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:00CHIArtem Anisimov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 0:51NSHCraig Smith: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:23NSHColin Wilson: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:41CHIBrent Seabrook: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P3 13:37NSHP.K. Subban: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:37CHIPatrick Kane: Embellishment2 min
- P3 18:14NSHP.K. Subban: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestAnisimov – Kane – Panarin4:09
xG 0.10–0.01 (95%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Kane – Schmaltz3:16
xG 0.09–0.02 (80%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Kane – Motte5:13
xG 0.20–0.21 (49%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Panik – Kruger – Motte3:07
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hjalmarsson – Kempny3:06
xG 0.05–0.03 (59%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Keith – Hjalmarsson10:30
xG 0.19–0.21 (47%)attempts 13–2goals 1–0
- Campbell – Forsling12:25
xG 0.29–0.41 (41%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestRibeiro – Smith – Arvidsson8:11
xG 0.48–0.09 (84%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Fisher – Neal – Wilson9:37
xG 0.45–0.37 (55%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Johansen – Forsberg – Fiala8:52
xG 0.32–0.27 (54%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- Jarnkrok – Salomaki – Sissons5:52
xG 0.03–0.26 (11%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEllis – Ekholm14:01
xG 0.72–0.35 (67%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Carle – Subban2:39
xG 0.24–0.09 (73%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Carle – Bitetto4:33
xG 0.23–0.19 (55%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).