Sat, Oct 15, 2016·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Boston Bruins 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 19 | 09 | 07 | 125 |
| TOR | 38 | 05 | 111 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:14TORConnor BrownAssists: Matt Hunwick, Peter Holland · Snap, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 11:56TORMitch MarnerGWGAssists: Tyler Bozak, Nikita Zaitsev · Snap, 0.06 xG0–2
- P1 13:13TORJames van RiemsdykAssists: Tyler Bozak, Jake Gardiner · Backhand, 0.05 xG0–3
- P1 17:35BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: John-Michael Liles, Brad Marchand · Slap, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 3:56TORMilan MichalekAssists: Morgan Rielly, Martin Marincin · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:16BOSDavid Backes: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:16TORNazem Kadri: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:53BOSBrad Marchand: High sticking2 min
- P1 5:21BOSBrad Marchand: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:58TORConnor Brown: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:46TORMitch Marner: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 6:15TORJake Gardiner: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:32BOSAnton Khudobin: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:33TORPeter Holland: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:36BOSZdeno Chara: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:36TORMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:36BOSZdeno Chara: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Backes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestMoore – Nash – Acciari9:25
xG 0.24–0.12 (67%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Krejci – Spooner – Heinen9:31
xG 0.39–0.27 (59%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Beleskey – Hayes – Czarnik6:20
xG 0.12–0.58 (17%)attempts 5–11goals 0–2
- Backes – Marchand – Pastrnak8:49
xG 0.25–0.77 (24%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLiles – Miller7:42
xG 0.47–0.20 (70%)attempts 10–6goals 0–2
- Chara – Carlo13:41
xG 0.34–0.39 (47%)attempts 16–9goals 0–1
- O'Gara – Krug12:20
xG 0.18–0.57 (24%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMichalek – Komarov – Kadri8:26
xG 0.83–0.19 (81%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner8:41
xG 0.39–0.14 (73%)attempts 6–8goals 2–0
- Martin – Holland – Brown6:31
xG 0.38–0.19 (67%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Hyman – Nylander – Matthews7:41
xG 0.03–0.14 (20%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarincin – Rielly11:34
xG 0.98–0.26 (79%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Marincin – Zaitsev2:09
xG 0.02–0.01 (64%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Hunwick – Zaitsev11:01
xG 0.59–0.61 (49%)attempts 11–18goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).