Sat, Oct 15, 2016·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Montréal Canadiens 3, Ottawa Senators 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 95% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 06 | 18 | 28 | 02 | 1 | 324 |
| OTT | 213 | 010 | 111 | 04 | 2 | 438 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:37OTTRyan DzingelAssists: Chris Wideman, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.37 xG0–1
- P1 15:50OTTZack SmithAssists: Chris Wideman, Derick Brassard · Tip-in, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 15:28MTLJeff PetryPPAssists: Nathan Beaulieu, Tomas Plekanec · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 2:50MTLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Phillip Danault, Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 9:00MTLJeff PetryAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, Brendan Gallagher · Slap, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 17:27OTTTom PyattAssists: Ryan Dzingel, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. OTT Kyle Turris scored
- 2. MTL Alexander Radulov scored
- 3. OTT Bobby Ryan stopped
- 4. MTL Max Pacioretty stopped
- 5. OTT Derick Brassard stopped
- 6. MTL Alex Galchenyuk stopped
- 7. OTT Erik Karlsson scored
- 8. MTL David Desharnais stopped
Penalties (10)
- P1 4:28OTTMarc Methot: Interference2 min
- P1 13:20OTTPhil Varone: Tripping2 min
- P1 0:00MTLTorrey Mitchell: Holding2 min
- P2 6:57OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:57MTLTomas Plekanec: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:20MTLAlex Galchenyuk: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:38OTTMike Hoffman: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 3:55MTLPaul Byron: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:06MTLMax Pacioretty: Holding2 min
- P3 6:58OTTDion Phaneuf: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brassard won the faceoff against Mitchell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPlekanec – Radulov – Pacioretty5:02
xG 0.12–0.05 (71%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Gallagher – Galchenyuk6:00
xG 0.11–0.12 (48%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Radulov – Lehkonen5:45
xG 0.14–0.21 (40%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Danault – Lehkonen2:52
xG 0.17–0.27 (39%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Emelin – Petry4:58
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
- Emelin – Pateryn10:27
xG 0.15–0.36 (29%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Markov – Petry10:15
xG 0.14–0.76 (15%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestRyan – Brassard – Smith12:31
xG 1.40–0.19 (88%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Turris – Hoffman – Stone9:24
xG 0.50–0.13 (80%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Neil – Varone – Dzingel4:15
xG 0.50–0.23 (69%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Kelly – Pyatt – Pageau9:28
xG 0.35–0.11 (76%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Karlsson13:42
xG 1.26–0.27 (83%)attempts 18–9goals 1–0
- Phaneuf – Ceci12:43
xG 1.12–0.16 (88%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Borowiecki – Wideman6:52
xG 0.37–0.03 (92%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 95% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).