Sat, Oct 15, 2016·Amalie Arena, Tampa
New Jersey Devils 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 213 | 09 | 012 | 234 |
| TBL | 013 | 212 | 19 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:52NJDKyle PalmieriAssists: John Moore · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 4:26NJDTravis ZajacAssists: PA Parenteau · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 7:53TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Ondrej Palat, Jonathan Drouin · Tip-in, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 10:07TBLAlex KillornAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Tyler Johnson · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 5:43TBLValtteri FilppulaGWGAssists: Jason Garrison, Brayden Point · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 12:55NJDMichael Cammalleri: Cross checking2 min
- P2 1:46TBLOndrej Palat: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:32TBLSteven Stamkos: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 17:56NJDMiles Wood: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:14NJDDevante Smith-Pelly: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 7:22TBLJT Brown: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:22NJDMichael Cammalleri: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:39TBLAndrej Sustr: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:00TBLSteven Stamkos: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnson won the faceoff against Henrique
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestSmith-Pelly – Bennett – Zacha6:48
xG 0.27–0.13 (67%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Cammalleri – Henrique – Palmieri10:48
xG 0.25–0.32 (44%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Fiddler – Wood – Speers8:50
xG 0.01–0.16 (8%)attempts 1–11goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Zajac – Hall11:12
xG 0.43–0.68 (39%)attempts 14–11goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Severson11:36
xG 0.51–0.38 (57%)attempts 14–10goals 0–2
- Quincey – Greene2:18
xG 0.02–0.02 (53%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Quincey – Auvitu9:44
xG 0.28–0.42 (40%)attempts 7–11goals 1–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Palat – Drouin10:51
xG 0.50–0.29 (63%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
- Boyle – Brown – Paquette8:07
xG 0.30–0.14 (68%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Filppula – Namestnikov – Point11:18
xG 0.46–0.46 (50%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Killorn – Johnson – Kucherov8:31
xG 0.15–0.21 (41%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Hedman9:55
xG 0.32–0.13 (70%)attempts 7–5goals 0–2
- Hedman – Nesterov5:21
xG 0.28–0.15 (66%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Coburn – Nesterov5:30
xG 0.20–0.19 (51%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).