Sat, Oct 15, 2016·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Detroit Red Wings 1, Florida Panthers 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 19 | 04 | 09 | 122 |
| FLA | 216 | 012 | 210 | 438 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:10FLAVincent TrocheckAssists: Jussi Jokinen · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 10:01FLAColton SceviourGWGAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Denis Malgin · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
- P1 13:07DETDarren HelmAssists: Gustav Nyquist · Slap, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 17:38FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Jaromir Jagr · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–3
- P3 18:37FLAJonathan MarchessaultENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.69 xG1–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:58FLAGreg McKegg: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:42DETThomas Vanek: Holding2 min
- P2 5:42FLAKeith Yandle: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:01DETAlexey Marchenko: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 19:49DETJonathan Ericsson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 14:37FLAJason Demers: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Abdelkader – Glendening8:00
xG 0.26–0.11 (71%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Nielsen – Tatar2:20
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Tatar – Sheahan – Larkin7:17
xG 0.28–0.25 (53%)attempts 9–6goals 0–2
- Sheahan – Athanasiou – Larkin2:47
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEricsson – Marchenko9:25
xG 0.36–0.18 (67%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Smith – Ouellet6:49
xG 0.27–0.24 (53%)attempts 10–4goals 1–1
- Smith – Marchenko4:50
xG 0.09–0.20 (31%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Marchessault – Barkov12:50
xG 0.70–0.14 (83%)attempts 14–4goals 1–0
- Sceviour – McCann – Malgin6:20
xG 0.14–0.16 (47%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- MacKenzie – Harper – McKegg8:30
xG 0.10–0.17 (39%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Smith – Trocheck12:57
xG 0.32–0.44 (42%)attempts 11–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetrovic – Pysyk15:33
xG 1.17–0.04 (96%)attempts 16–4goals 1–0
- Yandle – Ekblad16:29
xG 0.51–0.35 (60%)attempts 18–16goals 0–0
- Demers – Matheson13:43
xG 0.28–0.55 (34%)attempts 9–14goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).