Sat, Oct 15, 2016·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Philadelphia Flyers 3, Arizona Coyotes 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 110 | 111 | 14 | 05 | 330 |
| ARI | 213 | 17 | 013 | 12 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:49ARIShane DoanPPAssists: Alex Goligoski, Christian Dvorak · Backhand, 0.29 xG0–1
- P1 12:31PHIMichael RafflAssists: Nick Schultz, Brandon Manning · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 14:17ARIMartin HanzalAssists: Jakob Chychrun, Max Domi · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–2
- P2 0:17ARIBrad RichardsonSHAssists: Jordan Martinook · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–3
- P2 6:16PHIWayne SimmondsAssists: Claude Giroux, Mark Streit · Wrist, 0.34 xG2–3
- P3 4:36PHIMatt ReadAssists: Travis Konecny, Brandon Manning · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–3
- OT 3:12ARIOliver Ekman-LarssonGWGAssists: Martin Hanzal, Radim Vrbata · Wrist, 0.37 xG3–4
Penalties (13)
- P1 0:35PHINick Cousins: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 2:52PHINick Cousins: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 4:44ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Interference2 min
- P1 8:45PHINick Cousins: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:17ARIAnthony Duclair: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 7:07PHIMark Streit: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:23PHITravis Konecny: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:51ARIShane Doan: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:42PHIWayne Simmonds: Elbowing2 min
- P3 15:16ARIRadim Vrbata: Tripping2 min
- OT 3:12PHIJakub Voracek: Misconduct10 min
- OT 3:12PHIJakub Voracek: Game misconduct10 min
- OT 3:12PHIJakub Voracek: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Richardson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Simmonds – Raffl9:20
xG 0.76–0.22 (78%)attempts 13–7goals 2–0
- Voracek – Couturier – Konecny9:41
xG 0.34–0.30 (53%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Weise – Cousins – Bellemare4:48
xG 0.00–0.17 (2%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Gordon – VandeVelde – Read3:15
xG 0.10–0.50 (16%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – Provorov12:25
xG 0.73–0.37 (66%)attempts 11–3goals 1–0
- Schultz – Manning10:16
xG 0.49–0.59 (45%)attempts 9–11goals 2–1
- MacDonald – Gostisbehere12:57
xG 0.35–0.48 (42%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestVrbata – Hanzal – Domi10:16
xG 1.16–0.46 (71%)attempts 14–9goals 1–1
- Rieder – Duclair – Dvorak5:42
xG 0.15–0.31 (32%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Doan – Richardson – Martinook8:14
xG 0.22–0.40 (35%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
- White – Dauphin – Crouse3:43
xG 0.04–0.46 (8%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcBain – Chychrun10:20
xG 0.96–0.33 (74%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
- Ekman-Larsson – Murphy16:48
xG 0.53–0.43 (55%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Schenn11:14
xG 0.19–1.03 (15%)attempts 6–13goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).