Mon, Oct 17, 2016·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Colorado Avalanche 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 210 | 07 | 113 | 11 | 431 |
| PIT | 212 | 013 | 16 | 00 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:57PITPhil KesselPPAssists: Kris Letang, Nick Bonino · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 9:33PITMatt CullenAssists: Chris Kunitz, Conor Sheary · Wrist, 0.33 xG0–2
- P1 16:27COLJarome IginlaPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Tyson Barrie · Snap, 0.15 xG1–2
- P1 17:50COLPatrick WierciochAssists: Rene Bourque, Fedor Tyutin · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 9:12PITTrevor DaleyPPAssists: Matt Cullen, Justin Schultz · Slap, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 13:28COLGabriel LandeskogPPAssists: Mikhail Grigorenko, Erik Johnson · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–3
- OT 0:22COLGabriel LandeskogGWGAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Erik Johnson · Tip-in, 0.15 xG4–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 8:24COLNikita Zadorov: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 10:24PITOlli Maatta: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:20COLCarl Soderberg: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:32PITNick Bonino: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 15:21PITChris Kunitz: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:24COLPatrick Wiercioch: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:31COLJarome Iginla: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:31PITChris Kunitz: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:59COLRene Bourque: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:49PITPhil Kessel: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:05PITChris Kunitz: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:34COLJoe Colborne: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 13:10PITEvgeni Malkin: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bonino won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestBourque – Colborne – Bourque4:20
xG 0.61–0.01 (99%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Bourque – Colborne – Duchene5:07
xG 0.09–0.05 (65%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Comeau – Soderberg – Grigorenko2:00
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Comeau – Smith – Martinsen2:06
xG 0.01–0.07 (15%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Johnson – Barrie2:19
xG 0.07–0.05 (61%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Zadorov2:31
xG 0.01–0.07 (12%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Wiercioch6:54
xG 0.14–0.23 (38%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Kunitz – Sheary6:04
xG 1.10–0.04 (97%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Malkin – Hornqvist – Wilson6:37
xG 0.45–0.14 (76%)attempts 8–3goals 0–1
- Cullen – Hornqvist – Wilson2:09
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Fehr – Sestito – Kuhnhackl3:20
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Dumoulin17:33
xG 1.42–0.11 (93%)attempts 22–10goals 1–0
- Schultz – Maatta4:10
xG 0.16–0.01 (95%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Daley – Cole3:35
xG 0.09–0.03 (73%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).