Tue, Oct 18, 2016·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Arizona Coyotes 4, Ottawa Senators 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 116 | 011 | 38 | 435 |
| OTT | 213 | 111 | 418 | 742 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:18ARITobias RiederAssists: Dylan Strome, Connor Murphy · Wrist, 0.36 xG1–0
- P1 13:41OTTBobby RyanPPAssists: Mike Hoffman, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–1
- P1 15:16OTTTom PyattAssists: Ryan Dzingel, Marc Methot · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 13:04OTTZack SmithSHAssists: Tom Pyatt, Cody Ceci · Snap, 0.15 xG1–3
- P3 1:01ARIOliver Ekman-LarssonPPAssists: Shane Doan, Alex Goligoski · Slap, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 7:30OTTChris KellyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–4
- P3 8:11OTTMark StoneGWGAssists: Kyle Turris, Mike Hoffman · Wrist, 0.31 xG2–5
- P3 10:07ARIJordan MartinookAssists: Alex Goligoski · Snap, 0.07 xG3–5
- P3 18:13OTTKyle TurrisAssists: Mike Hoffman, Mark Stone · Snap, 0.08 xG3–6
- P3 18:43ARIJordan MartinookAssists: Connor Murphy, Brad Richardson · Tip-in, 0.04 xG4–6
- P3 19:47OTTErik KarlssonENAssists: Chris Kelly · Wrist, 0.71 xG4–7
Penalties (11)
- P1 6:50OTTDion Phaneuf: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:37ARIRyan White: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 2:00OTTMark Stone: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:00ARIConnor Murphy: Embellishment2 min
- P2 12:40OTTChris Neil: Interference2 min
- P2 14:05OTTZack Smith: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:05ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:15OTTBobby Ryan: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:54OTTChris Kelly: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:28ARIAnthony Duclair: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 12:02OTTCody Ceci: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hanzal won the faceoff against Kelly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestRieder – Duclair – Strome4:46
xG 0.58–0.21 (74%)attempts 7–5goals 1–1
- Vrbata – Hanzal – Domi7:32
xG 0.39–0.12 (77%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- White – Dauphin – Crouse7:12
xG 0.40–0.43 (48%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Hanzal – Rieder4:20
xG 0.10–0.18 (36%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Ekman-Larsson – Murphy15:41
xG 0.90–0.89 (50%)attempts 19–15goals 2–2
- McBain – Connauton10:07
xG 0.11–0.62 (15%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
- Goligoski – Schenn13:43
xG 0.42–1.44 (23%)attempts 15–16goals 1–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestTurris – Hoffman – Stone11:57
xG 1.40–0.58 (71%)attempts 20–9goals 2–1
- Kelly – Pyatt – Pageau10:03
xG 0.74–0.32 (70%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
- Neil – Brassard – Dzingel2:16
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Ryan – Brassard – Smith6:46
xG 0.42–0.58 (42%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Karlsson13:00
xG 1.64–0.26 (86%)attempts 18–10goals 3–0
- Borowiecki – Wideman7:42
xG 0.60–0.09 (87%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Chabot2:46
xG 0.05–0.09 (34%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).