Tue, Oct 18, 2016·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Los Angeles Kings 3, Minnesota Wild 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 17 | 08 | 215 | 330 |
| MIN | 25 | 311 | 110 | 626 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:50LAKTanner PearsonAssists: Jeff Carter · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 1:36MINErik HaulaAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Jason Pominville · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P1 19:48MINJason PominvilleAssists: Erik Haula · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 12:38MINCharlie CoylePPAssists: Zach Parise, Ryan Suter · Backhand, 0.30 xG1–3
- P2 16:11MINMikko KoivuGWGAssists: Mikael Granlund, Chris Stewart · Wrist, 0.42 xG1–4
- P2 17:08MINTeemu PulkkinenAssists: Jonas Brodin, Zac Dalpe · Deflected, 0.07 xG1–5
- P3 6:42LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Tom Gilbert, Tyler Toffoli · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–5
- P3 14:35LAKTanner PearsonAssists: Jeff Carter, Devin Setoguchi · Slap, 0.18 xG3–5
- P3 17:42MINJared SpurgeonENAssists: Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.43 xG3–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 12:31MINChristian Folin: Holding2 min
- P1 14:36MINJason Zucker: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:05LAKJeff Carter: Holding2 min
- P2 8:10MINChris Stewart: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 9:21MINZach Parise: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:01LAKAnze Kopitar: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:04LAKAndy Andreoff: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:57LAKNicholas Shore: Cross checking2 min
- P3 8:37MINZach Parise: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestKopitar – King – Toffoli13:33
xG 0.78–0.11 (88%)attempts 18–5goals 1–0
- Carter – Setoguchi – Pearson10:23
xG 0.55–0.47 (54%)attempts 9–9goals 2–0
- Brown – Lewis – Shore8:20
xG 0.22–0.18 (55%)attempts 8–4goals 0–2
- Nolan – Dowd – Andreoff4:51
xG 0.04–0.54 (6%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – McNabb13:50
xG 0.80–0.11 (88%)attempts 23–3goals 1–1
- Gilbert – Forbort10:16
xG 0.46–0.25 (65%)attempts 8–7goals 1–1
- Gilbert – McNabb2:04
xG 0.10–0.22 (32%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Stewart – Granlund10:49
xG 0.51–0.35 (59%)attempts 4–12goals 1–0
- Dalpe – Zucker – Pulkkinen5:27
xG 0.44–0.41 (51%)attempts 9–5goals 1–1
- Pominville – Haula – Niederreiter10:46
xG 0.17–0.28 (38%)attempts 5–9goals 2–0
- Staal – Parise – Coyle8:26
xG 0.19–0.55 (26%)attempts 4–14goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Suter – Spurgeon14:48
xG 0.20–0.31 (40%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Brodin – Folin12:00
xG 0.12–0.30 (29%)attempts 4–14goals 1–0
- Scandella – Dumba12:26
xG 0.92–1.13 (45%)attempts 12–26goals 2–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).