Thu, Oct 20, 2016·TD Garden, Boston
New Jersey Devils 1, Boston Bruins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 06 | 015 | 18 | 129 |
| BOS | 011 | 08 | 217 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 4:14NJDKyle PalmieriPPAssists: Damon Severson, Jacob Josefson · Slap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P3 9:47BOSBrad MarchandAssists: John-Michael Liles, Colin Miller · Snap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 18:45BOSPatrice BergeronGWGAssists: Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak · Snap, 0.08 xG1–2
Penalties (7)
- P2 4:06NJDTravis Zajac: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:53NJDTaylor Hall: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:48BOSBrad Marchand: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:44BOSPatrice Bergeron: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:02NJDJohn Moore: Holding2 min
- P3 13:04NJDVernon Fiddler: Interference2 min
- P3 19:10BOSDavid Backes: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestZajac – Bennett – Hall3:34
xG 0.37–0.19 (66%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Cammalleri – Henrique – Bennett2:10
xG 0.13–0.11 (56%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Zajac – Hall3:56
xG 0.09–0.10 (48%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Smith-Pelly – Bennett – Zacha3:23
xG 0.07–0.13 (35%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – Auvitu11:27
xG 0.45–0.26 (64%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Greene – Severson15:15
xG 0.56–0.51 (53%)attempts 17–16goals 0–0
- Lovejoy – Moore14:25
xG 0.23–0.93 (20%)attempts 11–24goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestMoore – Schaller – Acciari8:42
xG 0.59–0.17 (78%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Backes – Krejci – Heinen12:17
xG 0.47–0.36 (56%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Beleskey – Nash – Hayes8:46
xG 0.27–0.39 (41%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak10:35
xG 0.28–0.48 (37%)attempts 10–10goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestMorrow – Krug15:39
xG 0.74–0.34 (68%)attempts 22–13goals 1–0
- Liles – Miller9:51
xG 0.41–0.21 (66%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Chara – Carlo19:45
xG 0.51–0.88 (37%)attempts 19–21goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).