Thu, Oct 20, 2016·Centre Bell, Montreal
Arizona Coyotes 2, Montréal Canadiens 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 08 | 211 | 010 | 229 |
| MTL | 112 | 320 | 111 | 543 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:20MTLAlexei EmelinAssists: Paul Byron, David Desharnais · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 2:07MTLTorrey MitchellAssists: Nathan Beaulieu, Paul Byron · Slap, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 4:06MTLShea WeberPPGWGAssists: Andrei Markov, Tomas Plekanec · Slap, 0.03 xG0–3
- P2 5:49MTLAlex GalchenyukAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Max Pacioretty · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–4
- P2 6:36ARIJakob ChychrunAssists: Jordan Martinook, Radim Vrbata · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–4
- P2 16:09ARILaurent DauphinSHAssists: Brad Richardson · Backhand, 0.24 xG2–4
- P3 12:38MTLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:58ARIJordan Martinook: Holding2 min
- P1 18:03MTLAlexander Radulov: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 0:13ARIMax Domi: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:35MTLAlex Galchenyuk: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:05ARIRyan White: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 3:05MTLAlexei Emelin: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:05ARIRyan White: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:23ARIJordan Martinook: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Hanzal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDoan – Rieder – Dvorak2:55
xG 0.16–0.01 (92%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Richardson – White – Dauphin8:26
xG 0.42–0.31 (57%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Vrbata – Martinook – Strome2:54
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Martinook – Dvorak9:03
xG 0.44–0.67 (40%)attempts 6–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcBain – Ekman-Larsson2:19
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Schenn3:14
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Chychrun3:37
xG 0.06–0.18 (26%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPacioretty – Gallagher – Galchenyuk11:19
xG 1.45–0.32 (82%)attempts 20–11goals 1–0
- Plekanec – Radulov – Lehkonen11:27
xG 0.78–0.50 (61%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Mitchell – Danault – Flynn10:03
xG 0.35–0.11 (76%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Byron – Shaw9:46
xG 0.17–0.59 (22%)attempts 10–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Petry15:31
xG 1.93–0.14 (93%)attempts 26–11goals 0–0
- Weber – Emelin2:26
xG 0.19–0.03 (85%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Emelin – Petry2:39
xG 0.01–0.02 (19%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).