Thu, Oct 20, 2016·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Minnesota Wild 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 011 | 212 | 010 | 233 |
| MIN | 05 | 113 | 29 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:13TORRoman PolakAssists: Jake Gardiner, Leo Komarov · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 10:09MINEric StaalAssists: Charlie Coyle, Mathew Dumba · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 15:28TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: William Nylander, Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–1
- P3 2:27MINZac DalpeAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Jonas Brodin · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 11:53MINEric StaalGWGAssists: Zach Parise, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 11:05MINChristian Folin: Interference2 min
- P1 16:10TORZach Hyman: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:32TORLeo Komarov: Holding2 min
- P2 13:41MINChristian Folin: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 9:03TORMilan Michalek: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:06MINChristian Folin: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- Martin – Holland – Brown6:28
xG 0.28–0.35 (44%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Michalek – Komarov – Kadri9:57
xG 0.07–0.22 (24%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner10:08
xG 0.14–0.47 (23%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Hyman – Nylander – Matthews10:30
xG 0.27–0.70 (28%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Rielly2:10
xG 0.08–0.01 (91%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Gardiner – Zaitsev3:18
xG 0.05–0.18 (23%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Polak – Gardiner8:40
xG 0.19–0.39 (33%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Parise – Coyle10:27
xG 0.88–0.19 (82%)attempts 15–7goals 2–0
- Pominville – Haula – Niederreiter7:50
xG 0.38–0.18 (68%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Koivu – Stewart – Granlund11:44
xG 0.25–0.11 (70%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Pominville – Haula – Zucker3:20
xG 0.03–0.20 (13%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Folin8:40
xG 0.59–0.23 (72%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Suter – Spurgeon13:42
xG 0.60–0.33 (65%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Suter – Folin3:24
xG 0.18–0.01 (96%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).