Thu, Oct 20, 2016·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Calgary Flames 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 28 | 113 | 111 | 432 |
| CGY | 010 | 18 | 18 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:55CARTeuvo TeravainenAssists: Noah Hanifin, Sebastian Aho · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–0
- P1 16:12CARVictor RaskPPAssists: Jeff Skinner, Noah Hanifin · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P2 4:55CARViktor StalbergGWGAssists: Klas Dahlbeck, Jaccob Slavin · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–0
- P2 18:07CGYTroy BrouwerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–1
- P3 8:03CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Jyrki Jokipakka · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 19:26CARJeff SkinnerPPAssists: Elias Lindholm, Noah Hanifin · Snap, 0.23 xG4–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 8:04CARLee Stempniak: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 12:15CARKlas Dahlbeck: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:12CGYLance Bouma: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 15:39CGYAlex Chiasson: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:55CARBrett Pesce: Holding2 min
- P2 1:31CGYJyrki Jokipakka: Holding2 min
- P2 10:06CGYMichael Frolik: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:42CARKlas Dahlbeck: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:29CGYTJ Brodie: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 2:59CARLee Stempniak: Cross checking2 min
- P3 5:36CGYBrett Kulak: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:29CGYAlex Chiasson: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:03CGYTroy Brouwer: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bennett won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestTeravainen – Lindholm – Aho5:13
xG 0.77–0.18 (81%)attempts 9–2goals 1–1
- McClement – Bickell – Stalberg4:25
xG 0.29–0.05 (84%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Staal – Nordstrom – Di Giuseppe7:36
xG 0.28–0.34 (45%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Stempniak – Skinner – Rask8:55
xG 0.17–0.46 (27%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – Pesce9:42
xG 0.51–0.13 (80%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Faulk9:22
xG 0.40–0.53 (43%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Dahlbeck – Hanifin7:30
xG 0.18–0.33 (35%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestStajan – Chiasson – Ferland2:08
xG 0.23–0.02 (93%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Frolik – Gaudreau – Monahan2:07
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Bouma6:04
xG 0.05–0.15 (26%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Gaudreau – Monahan2:56
xG 0.15–0.24 (38%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Brodie10:54
xG 0.41–0.31 (57%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Engelland – Kulak11:28
xG 0.56–0.71 (44%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Jokipakka – Hamilton8:34
xG 0.41–1.09 (27%)attempts 6–15goals 2–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).