Thu, Oct 20, 2016·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Buffalo Sabres 1, Vancouver Canucks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 06 | 014 | 18 | 128 |
| VAN | 06 | 110 | 14 | 220 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:10VANJannik HansenAssists: Brandon Sutter, Luca Sbisa · Backhand, 0.25 xG0–1
- P3 9:10VANDaniel SedinPPGWGAssists: Loui Eriksson, Brandon Sutter · Wrist, 0.38 xG0–2
- P3 11:23BUFNick BaptisteUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 14:27VANLuca Sbisa: Interference2 min
- P1 18:05VANBen Hutton: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 16:29BUFJohan Larsson: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 17:55VANMarkus Granlund: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:29BUFZach Bogosian: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 1:30VANDaniel Sedin: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:05BUFDmitry Kulikov: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 12:13VANErik Gudbranson: Interference2 min
- P3 12:59BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:18BUFTyler Ennis: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – O'Reilly – Reinhart13:34
xG 1.02–0.42 (71%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Moulson – Ennis – Girgensons6:55
xG 0.43–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Gionta – Foligno – Larsson7:57
xG 0.30–0.15 (66%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Grant – Deslauriers – Baptiste4:04
xG 0.20–0.30 (40%)attempts 2–3goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Ristolainen11:39
xG 0.63–0.27 (70%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Franson – Kulikov12:06
xG 0.66–0.45 (59%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Bogosian – McCabe13:31
xG 0.63–0.46 (57%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestHansen – Sutter – Granlund9:43
xG 0.82–0.31 (73%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Burrows – Dorsett – Gaunce4:37
xG 0.05–0.17 (24%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Eriksson7:43
xG 0.04–0.26 (12%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Skille – Baertschi – Horvat7:57
xG 0.13–0.51 (21%)attempts 2–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSbisa – Larsen10:13
xG 0.41–0.27 (61%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Gudbranson – Hutton13:25
xG 0.28–0.53 (34%)attempts 2–11goals 0–0
- Edler – Tanev13:20
xG 0.35–0.70 (33%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).