Fri, Oct 21, 2016·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Arizona Coyotes 2, New York Islanders 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 210 | 04 | 011 | 225 |
| NYI | 28 | 016 | 17 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:45NYIDennis SeidenbergAssists: Casey Cizikas, Cal Clutterbuck · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 13:31NYIRyan StromeAssists: Johnny Boychuk, Anthony Beauvillier · Wrist, 0.39 xG0–2
- P1 14:09ARIBrad RichardsonAssists: Laurent Dauphin, Shane Doan · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P1 14:22ARIRadim VrbataAssists: Jakob Chychrun, Tobias Rieder · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 4:24NYIJohnny BoychukSHGWGAssists: Brock Nelson · Slap, 0.05 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:57ARILawson Crouse: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:54ARIConnor Murphy: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:18NYITravis Hamonic: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:05ARIChristian Dvorak: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:30NYIAnders Lee: Interference2 min
- P2 10:35ARIMax Domi: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:35NYICasey Cizikas: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:11NYIJason Chimera: Cross checking2 min
- P3 2:36NYICalvin de Haan: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Hanzal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestVrbata – Hanzal – Rieder10:39
xG 0.42–0.18 (71%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Doan – Martinook – Strome2:22
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Duclair – Domi – Dvorak10:10
xG 0.34–0.49 (41%)attempts 19–10goals 0–1
- Doan – Richardson – Dauphin5:11
xG 0.08–0.24 (25%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Goligoski – Chychrun2:33
xG 0.07–0.20 (25%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Murphy13:51
xG 0.38–0.61 (39%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
- Schenn – Chychrun8:59
xG 0.19–0.70 (21%)attempts 10–12goals 1–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestQuine – Strome – Beauvillier7:51
xG 0.71–0.06 (92%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Ladd – Bailey – Tavares11:48
xG 0.84–0.21 (80%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- Clutterbuck – Kulemin – Cizikas7:57
xG 0.62–0.25 (71%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Chimera – Lee – Nelson6:57
xG 0.18–0.30 (38%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeidenberg – Hamonic4:39
xG 0.53–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Boychuk – de Haan6:34
xG 0.56–0.16 (78%)attempts 5–7goals 1–1
- Seidenberg – de Haan3:44
xG 0.48–0.09 (84%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).