Fri, Oct 21, 2016·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Nashville Predators 3, Detroit Red Wings 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 015 | 29 | 19 | 333 |
| DET | 015 | 219 | 39 | 543 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:17DETJustin AbdelkaderPPAssists: Ryan Sproul, Gustav Nyquist · Deflected, 0.48 xG0–1
- P2 14:13NSHP.K. SubbanPPAssists: Roman Josi · Slap, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 14:31NSHMike RibeiroPPAssists: Ryan Ellis, Viktor Arvidsson · Wrist, 0.47 xG2–1
- P2 19:20DETDrew MillerAssists: Mike Green · Slap, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 1:10DETTomas TatarAssists: Alexey Marchenko, Jonathan Ericsson · Snap, 0.19 xG2–3
- P3 11:27DETGustav NyquistGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.14 xG2–4
- P3 15:14NSHMike FisherPPAssists: Roman Josi, Filip Forsberg · Tip-in, 0.24 xG3–4
- P3 19:38DETDarren HelmENAssists: Luke Glendening, Henrik Zetterberg · Snap, 0.70 xG3–5
Penalties (15)
- P1 6:53NSHColin Wilson: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:12NSHFilip Forsberg: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 8:17NSHViktor Arvidsson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 12:33DETTomas Tatar: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 13:23DETDanny DeKeyser: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 16:10NSHFilip Forsberg: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:31NSHYannick Weber: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:31DETDylan Larkin: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:47DETJonathan Ericsson: Interference2 min
- P3 13:33NSHP.K. Subban: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:33DETJustin Abdelkader: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 14:44DETBrendan Smith: Holding2 min
- P3 17:58NSHCalle Jarnkrok: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 17:58NSHJames Neal: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:38NSHMike Ribeiro: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestNeal – Jarnkrok – Fiala5:33
xG 0.29–0.18 (61%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Neal – Jarnkrok – Johansen3:01
xG 0.18–0.11 (62%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Bass – Sissons – Fiala2:59
xG 0.06–0.08 (43%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Smith – Forsberg5:12
xG 0.21–0.39 (35%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Josi18:07
xG 1.05–0.88 (55%)attempts 18–19goals 0–2
- Ellis – Ekholm15:10
xG 0.61–0.92 (40%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Carle – Weber7:41
xG 0.11–0.66 (14%)attempts 3–11goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestOtt – Miller – Glendening5:27
xG 0.48–0.17 (74%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Tatar – Sheahan9:38
xG 0.59–0.52 (53%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Vanek – Helm – Nyquist7:30
xG 0.37–0.32 (54%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Abdelkader – Larkin9:57
xG 0.36–0.57 (38%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEricsson – Marchenko13:11
xG 1.18–0.57 (67%)attempts 21–8goals 2–0
- Marchenko – DeKeyser2:31
xG 0.07–0.04 (64%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Green – DeKeyser14:55
xG 0.57–0.55 (51%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).