Sat, Oct 22, 2016·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Colorado Avalanche 2, Florida Panthers 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 111 | 010 | 17 | 228 |
| FLA | 013 | 217 | 38 | 538 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:38COLBlake ComeauPPAssists: Tyson Barrie, Matt Duchene · Slap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 1:30FLAAaron EkbladPPAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Jonathan Marchessault · Slap, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 17:02FLAShane HarperAssists: Greg McKegg, Derek MacKenzie · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 4:30FLAJonathan MarchessaultGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 5:21FLAShane HarperAssists: Alexander Petrovic · Slap, 0.07 xG1–4
- P3 5:37COLMatt DucheneAssists: Patrick Wiercioch, Carl Soderberg · Tip-in, 0.19 xG2–4
- P3 6:56FLAVincent TrocheckUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 7:20FLAJason Demers: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 12:40COLAndreas Martinsen: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:43COLBlake Comeau: Cross checking2 min
- P2 0:58COLJarome Iginla: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 8:32FLADenis Malgin: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:23COLNikita Zadorov: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:39COLAndreas Martinsen: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:13FLAVincent Trocheck: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:38COLPatrick Wiercioch: Fighting5 min
- P3 17:38FLAShane Harper: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:37COLEric Gelinas: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Trocheck won the faceoff against Soderberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Iginla – Landeskog – MacKinnon10:44
xG 0.34–0.37 (48%)attempts 10–8goals 0–2
- Soderberg – Duchene – Grigorenko11:06
xG 0.49–0.61 (45%)attempts 9–15goals 1–1
- McLeod – Smith – Bourque5:28
xG 0.11–0.28 (28%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Comeau – Colborne – Martinsen6:57
xG 0.18–0.59 (24%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Wiercioch3:21
xG 0.23–0.06 (79%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Johnson – Zadorov5:44
xG 0.09–0.11 (46%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Johnson – Barrie5:41
xG 0.26–0.30 (47%)attempts 6–5goals 0–2
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Marchessault – Barkov10:00
xG 0.85–0.36 (70%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- MacKenzie – Harper – McKegg8:37
xG 0.53–0.44 (55%)attempts 9–8goals 2–1
- Smith – Trocheck – Rau13:09
xG 0.19–0.28 (41%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Sceviour – McCann – Malgin7:09
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDemers – Matheson14:24
xG 1.40–0.12 (92%)attempts 19–6goals 2–0
- Petrovic – Pysyk13:15
xG 0.28–0.24 (54%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Yandle – Ekblad14:21
xG 0.43–0.81 (34%)attempts 15–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).