Sat, Oct 22, 2016·Verizon Center, Washington
New York Rangers 4, Washington Capitals 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 013 | 35 | 18 | 426 |
| WSH | 210 | 07 | 011 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:33WSHLars EllerAssists: Brooks Orpik · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 14:49WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Dmitry Orlov · Snap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 2:21NYRBrandon PirriAssists: J.T. Miller, Adam Clendening · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 11:22NYRJimmy VeseyPPAssists: Rick Nash, Derek Stepan · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–2
- P2 14:22NYRJimmy VeseyGWGAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Mika Zibanejad · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 19:54NYRRick NashENAssists: Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.67 xG4–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 2:19WSHKarl Alzner: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:32WSHLars Eller: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:08NYRMika Zibanejad: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:08NYRMika Zibanejad: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:37WSHMatt Niskanen: Roughing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestGrabner – Hayes – Miller9:23
xG 0.68–0.23 (75%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Kreider – Zuccarello – Zibanejad10:56
xG 0.43–0.17 (72%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Nash – Stepan – Vesey10:11
xG 0.27–0.12 (68%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Pirri – Fast – Jooris6:59
xG 0.17–0.15 (52%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – Staal16:09
xG 0.92–0.62 (60%)attempts 20–15goals 1–1
- McDonagh – Holden18:42
xG 0.53–0.33 (62%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Clendening – Skjei7:40
xG 0.29–0.30 (49%)attempts 6–6goals 1–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Eller – Sanford9:26
xG 0.67–0.34 (66%)attempts 8–7goals 1–1
- Backstrom – Johansson – Burakovsky10:38
xG 0.20–0.18 (52%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Kuznetsov11:26
xG 0.43–0.60 (42%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Winnik – Beagle – Wilson6:53
xG 0.04–0.25 (14%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Schmidt12:26
xG 0.54–0.36 (60%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Carlson – Orlov15:26
xG 0.55–0.44 (56%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Niskanen – Alzner11:47
xG 0.20–0.30 (40%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).