Mon, Oct 24, 2016·United Center, Chicago
Calgary Flames 3, Chicago Blackhawks 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 114 | 111 | 05 | 01 | 1 | 331 |
| CHI | 08 | 18 | 112 | 06 | 0 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:51CGYSam BennettPPAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Micheal Ferland · Wrist, 0.38 xG1–0
- P2 1:32CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Artem Anisimov · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 6:52CGYSean MonahanPPAssists: Troy Brouwer, Mark Giordano · Backhand, 0.23 xG2–1
- P3 4:12CHIBrian CampbellUnassisted · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. CHI Jonathan Toews stopped
- 2. CGY Johnny Gaudreau stopped
- 3. CHI Patrick Kane stopped
- 4. CGY Troy Brouwer stopped
- 5. CHI Artemi Panarin stopped
- 6. CGY Sean Monahan stopped
- 7. CHI Artem Anisimov stopped
- 8. CGY Sam Bennett stopped
- 9. CHI Richard Panik stopped
- 10. CGY Mikael Backlund stopped
- 11. CHI Marian Hossa stopped
- 12. CGY Mark Giordano stopped
- 13. CHI Nick Schmaltz stopped
- 14. CGY Kris Versteeg scored
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:12CHITyler Motte: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 7:49CGYAlex Chiasson: Interference2 min
- P2 6:13CHIRichard Panik: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 7:07CHIArtemi Panarin: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:16CHITyler Motte: High sticking double minor4 min
- OT 0:46CGYMichael Frolik: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestStajan – Hamilton – Ferland8:17
xG 0.16–0.03 (86%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Versteeg – Brouwer – Bennett9:01
xG 0.35–0.38 (48%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
- Chiasson – Gaudreau – Monahan13:25
xG 0.42–0.48 (47%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Bouma10:31
xG 0.12–0.87 (12%)attempts 5–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJokipakka – Hamilton10:42
xG 0.44–0.39 (53%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Giordano – Brodie2:06
xG 0.07–0.14 (34%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Wideman – Giordano16:25
xG 0.36–0.73 (33%)attempts 13–21goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestTootoo – Kruger – Rasmussen5:42
xG 0.80–0.18 (82%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Kane – Panarin15:13
xG 0.48–0.23 (68%)attempts 11–7goals 2–0
- Hossa – Hartman – Schmaltz8:30
xG 0.19–0.21 (48%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Toews – Panik – Motte11:52
xG 0.16–0.41 (28%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Keith12:51
xG 0.74–0.23 (76%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Seabrook – Hjalmarsson16:16
xG 0.97–0.73 (57%)attempts 15–18goals 1–0
- Rozsival – Forsling5:20
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).