Tue, Oct 25, 2016·Prudential Center, Newark
Arizona Coyotes 3, New Jersey Devils 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 111 | 06 | 214 | 331 |
| NJD | 16 | 217 | 212 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:04ARIJordan MartinookAssists: Alex Goligoski, Jamie McGinn · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 8:43NJDTaylor HallAssists: Pavel Zacha · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 9:40NJDTaylor HallPPAssists: Pavel Zacha, Damon Severson · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–2
- P2 14:03NJDAdam HenriqueAssists: Reid Boucher, Devante Smith-Pelly · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–3
- P3 7:51ARIOliver Ekman-LarssonAssists: Michael Stone, Max Domi · Slap, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 13:53ARIOliver Ekman-LarssonPPAssists: Max Domi, Michael Stone · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–3
- P3 17:59NJDTravis ZajacPPGWGAssists: Taylor Hall, Damon Severson · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–4
- P3 19:46NJDTravis ZajacENAssists: Ben Lovejoy · Wrist, 0.66 xG3–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 17:22NJDSergey Kalinin: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:11ARIMartin Hanzal: Delaying game2 min · PPG
- P2 16:20ARIMax Domi: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:55NJDJohn Moore: Interference2 min
- P3 13:06NJDKyle Quincey: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 17:20ARIConnor Murphy: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Doan won the faceoff against Parenteau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestMcGinn – Martinook – Duclair10:24
xG 0.61–0.11 (85%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Vrbata – Hanzal – Domi12:37
xG 0.64–0.60 (52%)attempts 11–14goals 1–1
- Doan – Richardson – Rieder12:13
xG 0.24–0.32 (44%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- White – Dvorak – Crouse9:14
xG 0.12–0.38 (24%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Murphy13:39
xG 0.93–0.46 (67%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Schenn3:13
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Murphy – Chychrun2:31
xG 0.15–0.10 (61%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestFiddler – Smith-Pelly – Kalinin7:40
xG 0.25–0.06 (81%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Parenteau – Zajac7:41
xG 0.30–0.26 (53%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Palmieri – Hall – Zacha9:00
xG 0.19–0.20 (49%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Henrique – Bennett – Boucher6:01
xG 0.01–0.19 (4%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Auvitu12:07
xG 0.54–0.17 (76%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Greene – Lovejoy4:03
xG 0.35–0.05 (88%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Quincey – Moore12:30
xG 0.43–0.49 (47%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).