Tue, Oct 25, 2016·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Florida Panthers 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 18 | 14 | 010 | 222 |
| PIT | 04 | 111 | 27 | 322 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:02FLAReilly SmithPPAssists: Mike Matheson, Colton Sceviour · Backhand, 0.27 xG1–0
- P2 6:08FLAMark PysykAssists: Shane Harper, Jonathan Marchessault · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–0
- P2 13:41PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 5:36PITCarl HagelinAssists: Nick Bonino · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 9:42PITEric FehrGWGAssists: Tom Kuhnhackl, Matt Cullen · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:20PITPatric Hornqvist: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:14PITTrevor Daley: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:42PITBrian Dumoulin: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:16FLAJaromir Jagr: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:32FLAGreg McKegg: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 11:24PITEvgeni Malkin: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Trocheck – Rau11:58
xG 0.55–0.09 (86%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Sceviour – McCann – Malgin7:53
xG 0.06–0.09 (42%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Jagr – Marchessault – Barkov9:58
xG 0.18–0.32 (36%)attempts 10–9goals 0–2
- MacKenzie – Harper – McKegg11:46
xG 0.02–0.39 (4%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDemers – Matheson11:52
xG 0.40–0.26 (60%)attempts 13–10goals 0–2
- Petrovic – Pysyk14:19
xG 0.21–0.09 (71%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Yandle – Ekblad19:58
xG 0.20–0.46 (31%)attempts 15–22goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Fehr – Kuhnhackl6:39
xG 0.18–0.01 (93%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Bonino – Hagelin – Rust2:36
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Kunitz – Malkin – Rust7:52
xG 0.16–0.06 (73%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Malkin – Kessel5:56
xG 0.19–0.16 (54%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Warsofsky5:13
xG 0.17–0.02 (91%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Daley – Maatta7:44
xG 0.27–0.16 (63%)attempts 10–7goals 2–0
- Cole – Schultz8:16
xG 0.12–0.07 (63%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).