Wed, Oct 26, 2016·Madison Square Garden, New York
Boston Bruins 2, New York Rangers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 28 | 010 | 011 | 229 |
| NYR | 09 | 314 | 28 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:10BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Brad Marchand, Zdeno Chara · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–0
- P1 14:44BOSAustin CzarnikAssists: David Krejci · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–0
- P2 9:16NYRRick NashPPAssists: Derek Stepan, Jimmy Vesey · Wrist, 0.37 xG2–1
- P2 16:35NYRKevin HayesAssists: Jesper Fast, Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 19:24NYRBrandon PirriPPGWGAssists: J.T. Miller, Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 2:23NYRBrandon PirriAssists: Marc Staal, J.T. Miller · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–4
- P3 3:06NYRJimmy VeseyAssists: Rick Nash, Derek Stepan · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:40BOSRyan Spooner: Interference2 min
- P1 10:09BOSRiley Nash: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:09NYRMats Zuccarello: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:28BOSTim Schaller: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:08BOSAustin Czarnik: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 10:55BOSDavid Pastrnak: Illegal check to head2 min
- P2 17:58BOSMatt Beleskey: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 8:54BOSBrad Marchand: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:10NYROscar Lindberg: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBeleskey – Nash – Hayes9:06
xG 0.52–0.23 (70%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Krejci – Spooner – Czarnik10:44
xG 0.13–0.02 (86%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Moore – Schaller – Acciari7:47
xG 0.45–0.35 (56%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak10:00
xG 0.32–0.33 (49%)attempts 5–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Carlo16:58
xG 0.83–0.56 (60%)attempts 13–14goals 1–1
- McQuaid – Krug11:36
xG 0.58–0.37 (61%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Miller – Krug2:05
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestGrabner – Hayes – Fast9:52
xG 0.23–0.04 (86%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Pirri – Lindberg – Jooris2:41
xG 0.10–0.02 (86%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Nash – Stepan – Vesey11:16
xG 0.41–0.38 (52%)attempts 10–7goals 1–2
- Grabner – Lindberg – Fast2:03
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – Staal15:06
xG 1.01–0.57 (64%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Girardi – McDonagh3:50
xG 0.18–0.04 (83%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Girardi – Skjei8:49
xG 0.18–0.25 (42%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).