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Ice Lab

Thu, Oct 27, 2016·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia

Arizona Coyotes 5, Philadelphia Flyers 4

Away

Arizona Coyotes

5

Final

Home

Philadelphia Flyers

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 73% of the time.

PHI winsARI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
ARI21104310525
PHI01021329432

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 7:33ARIJamie McGinnAssists: Anthony Duclair, Brad Richardson · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–0
  2. P1 11:22ARIOliver Ekman-LarssonUnassisted · Snap, 0.05 xG2–0
  3. P2 9:34PHINick CousinsAssists: Brayden Schenn, Dale Weise · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–1
  4. P2 15:00PHIBrayden SchennPPAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Claude Giroux · Backhand, 0.36 xG2–2
  5. P3 6:31ARIMartin HanzalAssists: Max Domi, Michael Stone · Backhand, 0.17 xG3–2
  6. P3 8:10ARIBrad RichardsonSHAssists: Tobias Rieder · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–2
  7. P3 8:34PHIAndrew MacDonaldAssists: Ivan Provorov, Travis Konecny · Slap, 0.02 xG4–3
  8. P3 15:41ARIRyan WhiteGWGAssists: Christian Dvorak · Snap, 0.04 xG5–3
  9. P3 19:45PHIWayne SimmondsPPAssists: Brayden Schenn, Mark Streit · Backhand, 0.18 xG5–4
Penalties (14)
  1. P1 8:17ARILaurent Dauphin: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 12:43PHIBrayden Schenn: Slashing2 min
  3. P1 14:40ARIJamie McGinn: Roughing2 min
  4. P1 18:29ARIBrad Richardson: High sticking2 min
  5. P2 11:36ARIRyan White: Charging2 min
  6. P2 13:43ARILaurent Dauphin: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
  7. P2 18:20ARIBrad Richardson: Cross checking2 min
  8. P3 3:10PHIIvan Provorov: Interference2 min
  9. P3 6:31PHIBrayden Schenn: Fighting5 min
  10. P3 6:31ARIJakob Chychrun: Instigator2 min
  11. P3 6:31ARIJakob Chychrun: Fighting5 min
  12. P3 6:31ARIJakob Chychrun: Instigator misconduct10 min
  13. P3 8:51PHISean Couturier: High sticking2 min
  14. P3 18:57ARIRyan White: Closing hand on puck2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ARI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PHI
44% to win56% to win
← ARI attackPHI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Richardson won the faceoff against Giroux
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ARIPHI
25Shots on goal32
2.7Expected goals4.2
49Shot attempts75
26Faceoffs won28
3Power plays8
31Penalty minutes11
20Hits25
20Blocked shots16
8Giveaways13
4Takeaways4

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.

Arizona Coyotes

Forward lines

  1. bestMcGinn – Martinook – Duclair5:46

    xG 0.79–0.41 (66%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1

  2. Vrbata – Hanzal – Domi8:59

    xG 0.60–0.39 (61%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0

  3. White – Dauphin – Dvorak4:44

    xG 0.07–0.04 (64%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0

  4. Doan – Richardson – Rieder8:25

    xG 0.14–0.48 (22%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestSchenn – Chychrun7:22

    xG 0.60–0.08 (89%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0

  2. Goligoski – Schenn4:25

    xG 0.17–0.05 (76%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0

  3. Goligoski – Stone8:31

    xG 0.00–0.29 (0%)attempts 1–9goals 0–0

Philadelphia Flyers

Forward lines

  1. bestGiroux – Voracek – Konecny8:44

    xG 0.73–0.28 (72%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0

  2. Weise – Schenn – Cousins5:53

    xG 0.37–0.14 (72%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0

  3. VandeVelde – Bellemare – Lyubimov5:22

    xG 0.08–0.13 (39%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0

  4. Simmonds – Read – Couturier7:39

    xG 0.34–0.40 (46%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestStreit – Gudas13:33

    xG 1.07–0.32 (77%)attempts 20–11goals 1–0

  2. Manning – Provorov10:05

    xG 0.34–0.17 (66%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1

  3. MacDonald – Gostisbehere11:09

    xG 0.25–1.21 (17%)attempts 10–17goals 0–3

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PHI 4.2 xGARI 2.7 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PHIARI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 92/100 · #89 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.11 · 9 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 42% (winner's lowest chance)
ARI 100%5050%50PHI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +22 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 73% of the time.

PHI winsARI wins

Simulated goal difference (PHI − ARI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).