Thu, Oct 27, 2016·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Florida Panthers 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 111 | 111 | 09 | 231 |
| TOR | 110 | 29 | 09 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:55FLAJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Jaromir Jagr · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 18:56TORTyler BozakAssists: Nikita Zaitsev, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
- P2 3:35FLAJonathan MarchessaultPPAssists: Keith Yandle, Roberto Luongo · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 10:26TORJames van RiemsdykAssists: Mitch Marner · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 16:03TORTyler BozakGWGAssists: Mitch Marner, Nazem Kadri · Snap, 0.13 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 18:56FLAMike Matheson: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:56TORJames van Riemsdyk: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:45TORWilliam Nylander: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 7:26TORWilliam Nylander: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 1:04TORMitch Marner: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:40FLAColton Sceviour: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Marchessault – Barkov12:21
xG 0.74–0.45 (62%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Sceviour – Smith – Trocheck5:14
xG 0.38–0.15 (72%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Sceviour – McCann – Malgin4:52
xG 0.31–0.11 (73%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Rau – McCann – Malgin2:13
xG 0.01–0.07 (12%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDemers – Matheson13:41
xG 0.79–0.48 (62%)attempts 18–8goals 1–1
- Petrovic – Pysyk13:14
xG 0.29–0.38 (44%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Yandle – Ekblad16:51
xG 0.88–1.00 (47%)attempts 19–20goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner10:37
xG 0.68–0.27 (72%)attempts 12–7goals 2–0
- Hyman – Nylander – Matthews9:55
xG 0.69–0.39 (64%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- Martin – Smith – Griffith8:03
xG 0.25–0.05 (84%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Komarov – Kadri – Brown10:06
xG 0.31–0.61 (34%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarrick – Zaitsev12:37
xG 0.85–0.22 (79%)attempts 17–7goals 2–0
- Polak – Gardiner9:50
xG 0.53–0.31 (63%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Gardiner – Carrick4:42
xG 0.33–0.12 (73%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).