Thu, Oct 27, 2016·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Detroit Red Wings 2, St. Louis Blues 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 04 | 111 | 09 | 03 | 2 | 227 |
| STL | 014 | 19 | 07 | 02 | 1 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:31STLKevin ShattenkirkAssists: Patrik Berglund · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P2 13:54DETFrans NielsenSHAssists: Darren Helm, Alexey Marchenko · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. STL Alexander Steen scored
- 2. DET Frans Nielsen stopped
- 3. STL Vladimir Tarasenko stopped
- 4. DET Gustav Nyquist scored
- 5. STL Kevin Shattenkirk stopped
- 6. DET Dylan Larkin stopped
- 7. STL David Perron stopped
- 8. DET Andreas Athanasiou stopped
- 9. STL Nail Yakupov stopped
- 10. DET Tomas Tatar stopped
- 11. STL Robby Fabbri stopped
- 12. DET Riley Sheahan stopped
- 13. STL Patrik Berglund stopped
- 14. DET Darren Helm stopped
- 15. STL Dmitrij Jaskin stopped
- 16. DET Henrik Zetterberg scored
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:44STLPaul Stastny: Holding2 min
- P1 12:47DETMike Green: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:51DETRiley Sheahan: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:15STLPaul Stastny: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:20DETJonathan Ericsson: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:53STLRobert Bortuzzo: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:31STLKevin Shattenkirk: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:20DETTomas Tatar: Hooking2 min
- OT 4:40STLRobby Fabbri: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brodziak won the faceoff against Glendening
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Nyquist – Larkin7:23
xG 0.22–0.06 (78%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Zetterberg – Tatar – Sheahan4:11
xG 0.10–0.08 (55%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Abdelkader – Tatar2:06
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Tatar – Athanasiou5:22
xG 0.01–0.07 (13%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – Smith2:25
xG 0.25–0.02 (92%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Ericsson – Marchenko11:43
xG 0.31–0.22 (59%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Smith – Sproul7:44
xG 0.06–0.10 (38%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestLehtera – Tarasenko – Schwartz11:16
xG 0.84–0.29 (74%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Berglund – Perron – Yakupov6:52
xG 0.14–0.08 (63%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Reaves – Jaskin4:49
xG 0.06–0.02 (73%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Steen – Stastny – Fabbri8:11
xG 0.09–0.46 (16%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Parayko2:40
xG 0.45–0.04 (92%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Edmundson – Parayko12:08
xG 0.36–0.08 (81%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Bortuzzo7:05
xG 0.24–0.20 (55%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).