Sat, Oct 29, 2016·Centre Bell, Montreal
Toronto Maple Leafs 1, Montréal Canadiens 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 011 | 010 | 117 | 138 |
| MTL | 010 | 16 | 115 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:11MTLAlex GalchenyukAssists: Alexander Radulov, Nathan Beaulieu · Snap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P3 4:18TORNazem KadriPPAssists: William Nylander, Jake Gardiner · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- P3 7:24MTLShea WeberPPGWGAssists: Alexander Radulov, Alex Galchenyuk · Slap, 0.07 xG1–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 7:20MTLJeff Petry: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:38MTLAlexei Emelin: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:06TORZach Hyman: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:14TORMatt Martin: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:14MTLMax Pacioretty: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:17TORRoman Polak: Boarding2 min
- P3 4:05MTLAlexander Radulov: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:58MTLTorrey Mitchell: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:58TORNazem Kadri: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 6:53TORConnor Carrick: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:58MTLAlexei Emelin: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- Martin – Smith – Griffith3:39
xG 0.11–0.07 (60%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Komarov – Kadri – Brown5:55
xG 0.13–0.21 (39%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner9:25
xG 0.12–0.26 (32%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Hyman – Nylander – Matthews9:11
xG 0.08–0.29 (22%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Marincin – Rielly2:23
xG 0.15–0.10 (58%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Rielly – Carrick10:00
xG 0.20–0.18 (52%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Gardiner – Carrick2:34
xG 0.03–0.10 (21%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPlekanec – Byron – Lehkonen7:51
xG 0.41–0.04 (92%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Pacioretty – Shaw9:23
xG 0.34–0.12 (74%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Radulov – Gallagher – Galchenyuk8:49
xG 0.30–0.25 (54%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Mitchell – Danault – Flynn8:25
xG 0.25–0.28 (47%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Emelin14:13
xG 0.38–0.10 (79%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Markov – Petry11:54
xG 0.39–0.23 (62%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Weber – Petry2:01
xG 0.15–0.01 (92%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).