Sun, Oct 30, 2016·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Buffalo Sabres 3, Winnipeg Jets 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 29 | 112 | 07 | 328 |
| WPG | 08 | 013 | 117 | 138 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:51BUFKyle OkposoAssists: Zemgus Girgensons, Jake McCabe · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 12:49BUFBrian GiontaGWGUnassisted · Tip-in, 0.31 xG2–0
- P2 13:59BUFKyle OkposoAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Cody Franson · Snap, 0.04 xG3–0
- P3 4:49WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Blake Wheeler, Dustin Byfuglien · Snap, 0.21 xG3–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 6:42BUFBrian Gionta: Roughing2 min
- P1 6:42WPGToby Enstrom: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:38BUFKyle Okposo: Interference2 min
- P2 1:00BUFMatt Moulson: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:11BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Illegal check to head2 min
- P2 19:57BUFNick Baptiste: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:26WPGBlake Wheeler: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:24BUFKyle Okposo: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:24WPGMark Scheifele: Cross checking2 min
- P3 15:48BUFZach Bogosian: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:13BUFMarcus Foligno: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Larsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestMoulson – Okposo – O'Reilly10:17
xG 0.40–0.13 (75%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Gionta – Foligno – Larsson7:22
xG 0.42–0.19 (68%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
- Ennis – Girgensons – Reinhart9:44
xG 0.05–0.24 (18%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Ristolainen14:19
xG 0.91–0.15 (86%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Franson – McCabe9:45
xG 0.43–0.03 (93%)attempts 11–4goals 2–0
- Bogosian – Kulikov15:01
xG 0.30–0.59 (33%)attempts 7–21goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Scheifele – Ehlers9:55
xG 0.70–0.14 (83%)attempts 14–5goals 1–1
- Thorburn – Burmistrov – Tanev6:33
xG 0.05–0.06 (47%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
- Perreault – Ehlers – Connor2:09
xG 0.01–0.04 (13%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Matthias – Lowry – Armia7:26
xG 0.10–0.69 (13%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestByfuglien – Morrissey14:13
xG 0.76–0.60 (56%)attempts 17–11goals 1–1
- Stuart – Chiarot8:38
xG 0.04–0.02 (64%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Postma10:55
xG 0.09–0.43 (18%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).