Sun, Oct 30, 2016·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Toronto Maple Leafs 1, New York Islanders 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 010 | 017 | 17 | 134 |
| NYI | 213 | 012 | 310 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:01NYITravis HamonicAssists: Nick Leddy, Nikolay Kulemin · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 7:22NYICasey CizikasGWGAssists: Cal Clutterbuck, Nikolay Kulemin · Wrist, 0.36 xG0–2
- P3 0:50TORJake GardinerPPAssists: William Nylander, James van Riemsdyk · Slap, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 5:08NYIShane PrinceAssists: Dennis Seidenberg, Brock Nelson · Snap, 0.22 xG1–3
- P3 7:47NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Shane Prince, Dennis Seidenberg · Snap, 0.14 xG1–4
- P3 19:16NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Nick Leddy, John Tavares · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 12:28NYIDennis Seidenberg: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:03TORTyler Bozak: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:17NYIJohn Tavares: Holding2 min
- P2 17:39NYIShane Prince: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:39TORNazem Kadri: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:39TORNazem Kadri: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:59NYIAndrew Ladd: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 18:59NYIAndrew Ladd: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:59TORMatt Martin: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:14NYINikolay Kulemin: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:14TORConnor Carrick: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smith won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nylander – Matthews11:49
xG 1.16–0.95 (55%)attempts 18–12goals 0–1
- Komarov – Kadri – Griffith5:28
xG 0.31–0.15 (68%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Martin – Smith – Brown4:35
xG 0.27–0.31 (46%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Komarov – Kadri – Marner5:34
xG 0.28–0.37 (43%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Carrick13:33
xG 0.84–0.74 (53%)attempts 18–13goals 0–0
- Polak – Gardiner12:34
xG 0.97–0.94 (51%)attempts 18–12goals 0–3
- Marincin – Rielly3:09
xG 0.12–0.32 (27%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Nelson – Prince8:15
xG 1.42–0.26 (85%)attempts 12–9goals 2–0
- Clutterbuck – Kulemin – Cizikas8:25
xG 0.80–0.69 (54%)attempts 8–12goals 2–0
- Chimera – Lee – Strome8:32
xG 0.41–0.40 (51%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Bailey – Tavares – Beauvillier13:34
xG 0.61–0.61 (50%)attempts 14–17goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Leddy15:49
xG 1.43–0.70 (67%)attempts 19–20goals 2–0
- Seidenberg – de Haan15:05
xG 1.19–0.71 (63%)attempts 12–18goals 3–0
- Boychuk – Hickey14:56
xG 0.92–1.16 (44%)attempts 17–24goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).