Tue, Nov 1, 2016·Madison Square Garden, New York
St. Louis Blues 0, New York Rangers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 09 | 016 | 010 | 035 |
| NYR | 28 | 314 | 07 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:37NYRDan GirardiGWGAssists: Chris Kreider, Ryan McDonagh · Deflected, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 11:11NYRJimmy VeseyPPAssists: Derek Stepan, Brady Skjei · Snap, 0.23 xG0–2
- P2 6:18NYRRick NashAssists: Jimmy Vesey · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–3
- P2 12:55NYRMats ZuccarelloPPAssists: Chris Kreider, Mika Zibanejad · Snap, 0.52 xG0–4
- P2 18:17NYRKevin HayesAssists: J.T. Miller, Jimmy Vesey · Snap, 0.10 xG0–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:52STLJori Lehtera: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:39NYRPavel Buchnevich: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:17STLPatrik Berglund: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 11:45STLJori Lehtera: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 15:33NYRRick Nash: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:06STLJaden Schwartz: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 0:00STLJoel Edmundson: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:41STLAlexander Steen: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:41NYRNick Holden: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:52STLNail Yakupov: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestLehtera – Tarasenko – Schwartz12:09
xG 0.99–0.56 (64%)attempts 20–10goals 0–0
- Berglund – Jaskin – Fabbri5:00
xG 0.44–0.02 (95%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Steen – Stastny – Perron10:41
xG 0.37–0.29 (55%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- Brodziak – Reaves – Jaskin2:48
xG 0.05–0.01 (85%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdmundson – Parayko11:34
xG 1.01–0.31 (76%)attempts 22–11goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Parayko2:09
xG 0.13–0.02 (88%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Gunnarsson12:33
xG 0.21–0.38 (35%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Zuccarello – Zibanejad9:29
xG 0.88–0.38 (70%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Nash – Stepan – Vesey8:12
xG 0.38–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Grabner – Hayes – Miller10:34
xG 0.59–0.73 (44%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Pirri – Fast – Buchnevich9:05
xG 0.08–0.51 (13%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – McDonagh11:50
xG 1.12–0.89 (56%)attempts 15–17goals 1–0
- Staal – Holden14:59
xG 0.11–0.11 (50%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Klein – Skjei12:12
xG 0.36–0.88 (29%)attempts 9–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).