Tue, Nov 1, 2016·Pepsi Center, Denver
Nashville Predators 5, Colorado Avalanche 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 210 | 119 | 27 | 536 |
| COL | 116 | 07 | 06 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:33NSHCraig SmithAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Colin Wilson · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 5:35COLJarome IginlaAssists: Matt Duchene, Gabriel Landeskog · Snap, 0.29 xG1–1
- P1 17:47NSHMatt IrwinGWGAssists: James Neal, Filip Forsberg · Snap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 11:47NSHRyan JohansenPPAssists: Mike Fisher, James Neal · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–1
- P3 12:09NSHRoman JosiAssists: Ryan Johansen, Filip Forsberg · Backhand, 0.14 xG4–1
- P3 13:18NSHCraig SmithUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 9:33COLJoe Colborne: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:00NSHAustin Watson: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:37COLEric Gelinas: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 10:53COLCarl Soderberg: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 11:51COLJohn Mitchell: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P2 14:30NSHCraig Smith: Holding2 min
- P3 1:08COLGabriel Landeskog: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:08NSHAustin Watson: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:28NSHMattias Ekholm: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:13COLBlake Comeau: Boarding2 min
- P3 15:44NSHJames Neal: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestNeal – Johansen – Forsberg10:09
xG 0.67–0.33 (67%)attempts 17–12goals 2–0
- Ribeiro – Wilson – Smith9:17
xG 0.41–0.27 (60%)attempts 14–8goals 2–0
- Jarnkrok – Watson – Arvidsson2:09
xG 0.03–0.01 (69%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Bass – Watson – Sissons6:45
xG 0.13–0.27 (32%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Ekholm15:22
xG 0.71–0.06 (93%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Weber – Irwin9:12
xG 0.35–0.00 (100%)attempts 15–2goals 2–0
- Josi – Ellis12:55
xG 0.21–0.92 (19%)attempts 12–20goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Duchene – Landeskog7:01
xG 0.31–0.17 (65%)attempts 4–4goals 1–1
- Mitchell – Colborne – Martinsen7:05
xG 0.21–0.16 (57%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Colborne – MacKinnon – Rantanen2:19
xG 0.16–0.14 (52%)attempts 4–1goals 0–1
- Grigorenko – MacKinnon – Rantanen7:10
xG 0.20–0.34 (37%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Wiercioch – Barrie12:03
xG 0.17–0.37 (32%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
- Johnson – Zadorov10:25
xG 0.30–0.51 (37%)attempts 11–10goals 0–2
- Beauchemin – Gelinas7:26
xG 0.00–0.45 (0%)attempts 3–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).