Wed, Nov 2, 2016·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Detroit Red Wings 3, Philadelphia Flyers 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 29 | 06 | 110 | 00 | 325 |
| PHI | 08 | 117 | 214 | 11 | 440 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:15DETDylan LarkinAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Mike Green · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 13:31DETAndreas AthanasiouAssists: Riley Sheahan, Jonathan Ericsson · Snap, 0.03 xG2–0
- P2 13:39PHIChris VandeVeldeAssists: Brayden Schenn, Mark Streit · Backhand, 0.15 xG2–1
- P3 3:51PHIRoman LyubimovAssists: Andrew MacDonald, Matt Read · Wrist, 0.45 xG2–2
- P3 8:18DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Tomas Tatar, Justin Abdelkader · Snap, 0.14 xG3–2
- P3 18:56PHIMark StreitAssists: Brayden Schenn, Wayne Simmonds · Wrist, 0.32 xG3–3
- OT 1:41PHIJakub VoracekGWGAssists: Claude Giroux · Slap, 0.08 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 16:44DETMike Green: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:44PHIBrayden Schenn: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 9:22PHIBrandon Manning: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:22DETSteve Ott: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:52DETTomas Tatar: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 15:02PHIDale Weise: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Abdelkader – Tatar13:26
xG 0.60–0.31 (66%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Ott – Miller – Glendening7:16
xG 0.08–0.22 (26%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Helm – Sheahan – Athanasiou9:55
xG 0.11–0.45 (20%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Nyquist – Larkin12:29
xG 0.26–0.80 (25%)attempts 12–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Smith – Ouellet12:59
xG 0.17–0.23 (43%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Green – DeKeyser16:59
xG 0.58–0.82 (42%)attempts 14–16goals 2–1
- Ericsson – Green3:24
xG 0.12–0.45 (21%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestVoracek – Couturier – Konecny12:02
xG 1.02–0.18 (85%)attempts 18–8goals 0–1
- Read – Bellemare – Lyubimov9:11
xG 0.65–0.43 (60%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- VandeVelde – Weise – Cousins4:30
xG 0.17–0.01 (93%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- VandeVelde – Schenn – Cousins5:36
xG 0.41–0.29 (59%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Gostisbehere15:11
xG 1.24–0.23 (84%)attempts 18–12goals 1–1
- Manning – Gudas16:42
xG 0.82–0.65 (56%)attempts 17–20goals 0–1
- Streit – Provorov13:10
xG 0.42–0.32 (57%)attempts 15–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).