Wed, Nov 2, 2016·Honda Center, Anaheim
Pittsburgh Penguins 5, Anaheim Ducks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 26 | 121 | 27 | 534 |
| ANA | 113 | 07 | 013 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:41PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Phil Kessel, Chris Kunitz · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 10:24PITMatt CullenGWGAssists: Tom Sestito, Eric Fehr · Slap, 0.03 xG2–0
- P1 15:49ANACam FowlerPPAssists: Sami Vatanen, Ryan Kesler · Slap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 16:42PITBryan RustAssists: Nick Bonino, Kris Letang · Backhand, 0.15 xG3–1
- P3 1:27PITKris LetangPPAssists: Justin Schultz · Tip-in, 0.12 xG4–1
- P3 7:14PITPatric HornqvistAssists: Sidney Crosby, Carl Hagelin · Wrist, 0.27 xG5–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 14:48PITChris Kunitz: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 0:39ANAAntoine Vermette: Holding2 min
- P2 9:39PITTom Sestito: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:39ANAJared Boll: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:39PITTom Sestito: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:05PITEvgeni Malkin: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:05ANAAndrew Cogliano: Embellishment2 min
- P2 19:05PITEvgeni Malkin: Interference2 min
- P2 19:57ANARyan Kesler: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 2:45ANAClayton Stoner: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P3 14:03ANASami Vatanen: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Vermette
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestBonino – Rust – Wilson8:08
xG 1.11–0.23 (83%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Crosby – Hornqvist – Hagelin5:49
xG 0.72–0.18 (80%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Crosby – Hornqvist – Wilson4:59
xG 0.16–0.09 (64%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Bonino – Hagelin – Rust4:33
xG 0.22–0.17 (56%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Dumoulin15:04
xG 1.84–0.28 (87%)attempts 22–8goals 3–0
- Daley – Maatta16:10
xG 0.55–0.24 (69%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Cole – Schultz11:45
xG 0.36–0.52 (41%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Cramarossa – Rakell4:17
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Boll – Sgarbossa – Garbutt2:51
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Boll – Wagner – Garbutt4:55
xG 0.06–0.14 (31%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Wagner – Cramarossa – Kase3:01
xG 0.02–0.17 (10%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVatanen – Theodore2:45
xG 0.20–0.05 (80%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Stoner – Vatanen11:57
xG 0.79–0.67 (54%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
- Bieksa – Stoner3:44
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).