Thu, Nov 3, 2016·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Nashville Predators 2, Arizona Coyotes 3 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 118 | 17 | 06 | 06 | 0 | 237 |
| ARI | 16 | 011 | 111 | 00 | 2 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:17ARIChristian DvorakAssists: Ryan White, Alex Goligoski · Backhand, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 17:55NSHMatt IrwinAssists: Yannick Weber, Mike Ribeiro · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 16:35NSHCraig SmithPPAssists: P.K. Subban, Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 5:48ARIAnthony DuclairAssists: Max Domi · Wrist, 0.35 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. ARI Anthony Duclair scored
- 2. NSH Filip Forsberg stopped
- 3. ARI Radim Vrbata scored
- 4. NSH Ryan Johansen stopped
Penalties (10)
- P1 9:59ARIJakob Chychrun: Holding2 min
- P1 11:48ARIKevin Connauton: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:01ARIConnor Murphy: Interference2 min
- P2 2:30NSHCody Bass: Charging2 min
- P2 7:41ARIKevin Connauton: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:05NSHYannick Weber: Holding2 min
- P2 15:00ARIJamie McGinn: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 10:28NSHKevin Fiala: Interference2 min
- P3 14:28ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Holding2 min
- OT 3:21ARIRadim Vrbata: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Martinook won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJarnkrok – Fiala – Arvidsson9:35
xG 0.41–0.12 (78%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Neal – Johansen – Forsberg10:17
xG 0.28–0.12 (71%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Bass – Watson – Sissons4:54
xG 0.01–0.07 (12%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Wilson – Smith11:13
xG 0.21–0.67 (24%)attempts 13–12goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Ellis14:38
xG 0.38–0.21 (64%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Subban – Ekholm12:45
xG 0.52–0.50 (51%)attempts 17–10goals 0–1
- Weber – Irwin10:40
xG 0.15–0.45 (25%)attempts 8–14goals 1–1
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDuclair – Domi – Dvorak6:03
xG 0.45–0.08 (85%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- White – Martinook – Crouse3:39
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- White – Dvorak – Crouse3:17
xG 0.12–0.02 (84%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Vrbata – McGinn – Strome5:03
xG 0.08–0.20 (29%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Ekman-Larsson16:29
xG 0.68–0.40 (63%)attempts 13–11goals 2–1
- Schenn – Connauton9:14
xG 0.36–0.13 (74%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Murphy – Chychrun13:42
xG 0.20–0.55 (26%)attempts 10–21goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).