Thu, Nov 3, 2016·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Calgary Flames 3, San Jose Sharks 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 07 | 210 | 15 | 322 |
| SJS | 07 | 010 | 211 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 16:32CGYTroy BrouwerAssists: Micheal Ferland, Sam Bennett · Slap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 18:05CGYMatthew TkachukAssists: Deryk Engelland, Michael Frolik · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–0
- P3 0:35SJSBrent BurnsPPAssists: Joe Pavelski, Joe Thornton · Slap, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 9:18SJSMelker KarlssonAssists: Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Chris Tierney · Deflected, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 15:39CGYMatthew TkachukGWGAssists: Michael Frolik, Deryk Engelland · Backhand, 0.14 xG3–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 0:20CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 3:10CGYAlex Chiasson: Interference2 min
- P1 11:05CGYBrett Kulak: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:05CGYBrett Kulak: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:05SJSJoonas Donskoi: Holding2 min
- P1 13:34SJSPaul Martin: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:55CGYSam Bennett: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 3:38SJSTomas Hertl: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:40SJSBrenden Dillon: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:40CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:42CGYTJ Brodie: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestStajan – Bouma – Ferland5:29
xG 0.27–0.07 (79%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk8:24
xG 0.26–0.13 (67%)attempts 7–5goals 2–0
- Brouwer – Gaudreau – Monahan2:12
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Gaudreau – Bennett2:14
xG 0.00–0.44 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Jokipakka – Hamilton13:13
xG 0.11–0.25 (30%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
- Engelland – Kulak11:25
xG 0.39–0.93 (29%)attempts 15–11goals 3–0
- Giordano – Brodie15:21
xG 0.24–0.83 (22%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Boedker – Hertl4:23
xG 0.86–0.09 (90%)attempts 9–2goals 0–1
- Ward – Couture – Donskoi9:23
xG 0.82–0.09 (90%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Marleau – Tierney – Karlsson2:25
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 1–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Karlsson5:00
xG 0.11–0.05 (67%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Braun14:57
xG 1.05–0.21 (83%)attempts 14–9goals 1–1
- Martin – Burns11:40
xG 0.55–0.33 (62%)attempts 16–10goals 0–1
- Schlemko – Dillon9:39
xG 0.13–0.13 (49%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).