Fri, Nov 4, 2016·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Winnipeg Jets 5, Detroit Red Wings 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 18 | 09 | 414 | 531 |
| DET | 115 | 112 | 16 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:04DETLuke GlendeningAssists: Danny DeKeyser, Mike Green · Tip-in, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 15:30WPGPatrik LaineAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 9:40DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Tomas Tatar · Wrist, 0.36 xG1–2
- P3 2:01WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Patrik Laine, Nikolaj Ehlers · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–2
- P3 10:48DETJustin AbdelkaderAssists: Tomas Tatar, Henrik Zetterberg · Slap, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 12:24WPGBrandon TanevAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–3
- P3 18:44WPGBrandon TanevGWGAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Marko Dano · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–3
- P3 19:54WPGNikolaj EhlersENAssists: Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.68 xG5–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 15:40WPGJosh Morrissey: Holding2 min
- P2 5:05WPGNikolaj Ehlers: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 4:19WPGBen Chiarot: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:14WPGDustin Byfuglien: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:14DETBrendan Smith: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Petan won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Petan – Connor13:50
xG 0.34–0.15 (69%)attempts 15–5goals 0–1
- Thorburn – Burmistrov – Copp6:03
xG 0.06–0.27 (19%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Scheifele – Ehlers – Laine13:33
xG 0.89–1.13 (44%)attempts 14–13goals 2–1
- Lowry – Dano – Tanev9:20
xG 0.12–0.48 (20%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Postma15:51
xG 0.62–0.19 (77%)attempts 18–8goals 1–0
- Chiarot – Melchiori9:59
xG 0.70–0.46 (60%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Byfuglien – Morrissey20:43
xG 0.32–1.25 (20%)attempts 14–18goals 2–3
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestHelm – Sheahan – Athanasiou10:42
xG 0.63–0.16 (80%)attempts 8–9goals 0–2
- Nielsen – Nyquist – Larkin12:06
xG 0.31–0.26 (55%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Abdelkader – Tatar14:05
xG 0.80–0.86 (48%)attempts 12–14goals 2–1
- Ott – Miller – Glendening7:42
xG 0.06–0.37 (14%)attempts 5–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Smith12:40
xG 0.66–0.19 (78%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Ericsson – Smith2:17
xG 0.36–0.10 (78%)attempts 1–4goals 1–0
- Ericsson – Marchenko15:25
xG 0.36–0.36 (50%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).