Fri, Nov 4, 2016·Honda Center, Anaheim
Arizona Coyotes 1, Anaheim Ducks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 04 | 113 | 05 | 122 |
| ANA | 321 | 16 | 16 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:05ANAKevin BieksaPPAssists: Corey Perry, Rickard Rakell · Slap, 0.41 xG0–1
- P1 12:11ANARickard RakellGWGAssists: Corey Perry, Michael Sgarbossa · Slap, 0.06 xG0–2
- P1 19:15ANAJakob SilfverbergAssists: Antoine Vermette, Andrew Cogliano · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–3
- P2 13:23ANAAntoine VermetteAssists: Ondrej Kase, Josh Manson · Slap, 0.06 xG0–4
- P2 16:32ARIJamie McGinnAssists: Radim Vrbata, Christian Dvorak · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–4
- P3 14:11ANARickard RakellAssists: Ryan Kesler · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:36ARIAlex Goligoski: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 15:44ARIMax Domi: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:44ANARyan Kesler: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:44ANARyan Kesler: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:52ARILawson Crouse: Cross checking2 min
- P2 11:52ANAKevin Bieksa: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:03ARIAnthony Duclair: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richardson won the faceoff against Vermette
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestWhite – Martinook – Crouse10:49
xG 0.44–0.27 (62%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Rieder – Strome2:41
xG 0.16–0.04 (80%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Vrbata – McGinn – Dvorak6:49
xG 0.25–0.15 (62%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Doan – Richardson – Domi8:01
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Schenn – Connauton12:48
xG 0.27–0.32 (46%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Murphy – Chychrun15:56
xG 0.20–0.27 (43%)attempts 16–11goals 0–1
- Ekman-Larsson – Connauton2:19
xG 0.05–0.15 (27%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg7:26
xG 0.46–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Perry – Sgarbossa – Rakell12:44
xG 0.52–0.37 (58%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Vermette – Cramarossa – Kase11:07
xG 0.24–0.10 (71%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Boll – Wagner – Garbutt10:26
xG 0.39–0.26 (60%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStoner – Vatanen15:33
xG 0.59–0.02 (96%)attempts 15–4goals 2–0
- Fowler – Manson16:18
xG 0.97–0.47 (67%)attempts 16–14goals 0–1
- Bieksa – Fowler2:26
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).