Sat, Nov 5, 2016·TD Garden, Boston
New York Rangers 5, Boston Bruins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 211 | 18 | 25 | 524 |
| BOS | 111 | 015 | 111 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:44BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Brad Marchand · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 15:09NYRNick HoldenAssists: Jimmy Vesey, Derek Stepan · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 17:59NYRDerek StepanSHAssists: Michael Grabner, Dan Girardi · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 2:18NYRKevin HayesSHGWGAssists: Marc Staal, Kevin Klein · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–1
- P3 13:37NYRPavel BuchnevichPPAssists: Derek Stepan, Brady Skjei · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–1
- P3 14:46BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Riley Nash, Brandon Carlo · Tip-in, 0.10 xG4–2
- P3 16:48NYRMichael GrabnerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.19 xG5–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:36BOSColin Miller: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:30NYRMarc Staal: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:19NYRJesper Fast: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:49NYRDerek Stepan: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:16BOSBrad Marchand: Holding2 min
- P3 11:16BOSBrad Marchand: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Moore won the faceoff against Hayes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestPirri – Fast – Buchnevich8:17
xG 0.44–0.04 (92%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Kreider – Zuccarello – Zibanejad10:54
xG 0.03–0.53 (5%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
- Grabner – Hayes – Miller11:00
xG 0.22–0.73 (23%)attempts 6–17goals 1–0
- Nash – Stepan – Vesey9:16
xG 0.25–0.82 (23%)attempts 6–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – McDonagh15:58
xG 0.71–0.64 (52%)attempts 11–18goals 1–2
- Klein – Skjei12:24
xG 0.29–0.90 (24%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
- Staal – Holden16:44
xG 0.06–0.70 (8%)attempts 10–19goals 1–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak11:22
xG 0.81–0.24 (77%)attempts 19–6goals 1–0
- Backes – Krejci – Spooner9:53
xG 0.69–0.21 (77%)attempts 10–6goals 0–2
- Beleskey – Nash – Czarnik10:00
xG 0.41–0.11 (79%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Moore – Schaller – Acciari9:34
xG 0.37–0.18 (67%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcQuaid – Krug13:38
xG 0.74–0.17 (81%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Liles – Miller11:09
xG 0.54–0.04 (93%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Miller – Krug4:00
xG 0.30–0.01 (97%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).