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Ice Lab

Sat, Nov 5, 2016·Air Canada Centre, Toronto

Vancouver Canucks 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 6

Away

Vancouver Canucks

3

Final

Home

Toronto Maple Leafs

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 87% of the time.

TOR winsVAN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
VAN17112110329
TOR217113312642

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 12:20TORNazem KadriAssists: Nikita Zaitsev, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
  2. P1 16:18TORTyler BozakAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Leo Komarov · Snap, 0.16 xG0–2
  3. P1 16:44VANDerek DorsettAssists: Jannik Hansen, Brandon Sutter · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
  4. P2 15:00TORTyler BozakPPAssists: Mitch Marner, James van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.39 xG1–3
  5. P2 16:20VANHenrik SedinAssists: Philip Larsen · Snap, 0.17 xG2–3
  6. P3 4:18TORMitch MarnerGWGAssists: Tyler Bozak, James van Riemsdyk · Snap, 0.23 xG2–4
  7. P3 6:13TORNikita SoshnikovAssists: Ben Smith · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–5
  8. P3 6:42VANDaniel SedinAssists: Jannik Hansen, Troy Stecher · Snap, 0.06 xG3–5
  9. P3 8:21TORJake GardinerAssists: Auston Matthews, William Nylander · Snap, 0.20 xG3–6
Penalties (32)
  1. P1 12:09TORMatt Martin: Roughing2 min
  2. P1 12:09VANBrendan Gaunce: Roughing2 min
  3. P1 14:05TORJames van Riemsdyk: Interference2 min
  4. P2 11:48TORRoman Polak: Interference2 min
  5. P2 11:57VANBo Horvat: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 13:28VANJannik Hansen: High sticking2 min · PPG
  7. P2 16:46VANBen Hutton: Hooking2 min
  8. P3 6:42TORNazem Kadri: Charging5 min
  9. P3 6:42TORNazem Kadri: Fighting5 min
  10. P3 6:42VANJannik Hansen: Instigator2 min
  11. P3 6:42VANJannik Hansen: Fighting5 min
  12. P3 6:42VANJannik Hansen: Misconduct10 min
  13. P3 6:42TORNazem Kadri: Game misconduct10 min
  14. P3 11:27TORLeo Komarov: Fighting5 min
  15. P3 11:27VANDerek Dorsett: Fighting5 min
  16. P3 11:27VANDerek Dorsett: Instigator2 min
  17. P3 11:27VANDerek Dorsett: Misconduct10 min
  18. P3 11:34VANAlexandre Burrows: Instigator2 min
  19. P3 11:34VANAlexandre Burrows: Fighting5 min
  20. P3 11:34VANAlexandre Burrows: Misconduct10 min
  21. P3 11:34TORMorgan Rielly: Fighting5 min
  22. P3 14:52VANTroy Stecher: Fighting5 min
  23. P3 14:52TORMatt Martin: Roughing2 min
  24. P3 14:52TORMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
  25. P3 14:52TORMatt Martin: Misconduct10 min
  26. P3 14:52VANRyan Miller: Goalie leave crease2 min
  27. P3 14:52VANRyan Miller: Game misconduct10 min
  28. P3 14:52VANRyan Miller: Game misconduct10 min
  29. P3 14:52TORFrederik Andersen: Goalie leave crease2 min
  30. P3 14:52TORConnor Carrick: Misconduct10 min
  31. P3 14:52TORFrederik Andersen: Game misconduct10 min
  32. P3 14:52VANBrendan Gaunce: Misconduct10 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

VAN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TOR
44% to win56% to win
← VAN attackTOR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Sedin won the faceoff against Kadri
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

VANTOR
29Shots on goal42
3.1Expected goals6.1
54Shot attempts72
27Faceoffs won42
4Power plays5
96Penalty minutes75
24Hits32
16Blocked shots13
10Giveaways10
8Takeaways10

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Vancouver Canucks

Forward lines

  1. bestSedin – Sedin – Hansen9:05

    xG 0.52–0.24 (68%)attempts 12–9goals 2–0

  2. Baertschi – Horvat – Virtanen3:08

    xG 0.01–0.31 (4%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0

  3. Eriksson – Sutter – Granlund7:51

    xG 1.09–1.56 (41%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0

  4. Dorsett – Baertschi – Horvat5:30

    xG 0.21–0.96 (18%)attempts 4–11goals 0–2

Defence pairs

  1. bestLarsen – Tryamkin6:04

    xG 0.37–0.19 (67%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0

  2. Tryamkin – Stecher6:13

    xG 0.18–0.23 (44%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0

  3. Sbisa – Stecher2:40

    xG 0.10–0.48 (18%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0

Toronto Maple Leafs

Forward lines

  1. bestvan Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner10:10

    xG 1.68–0.28 (86%)attempts 16–9goals 1–1

  2. Martin – Smith – Soshnikov7:00

    xG 0.65–0.20 (76%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0

  3. Hyman – Nylander – Matthews9:57

    xG 1.20–1.24 (49%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0

  4. Komarov – Kadri – Brown9:36

    xG 0.36–0.66 (35%)attempts 10–14goals 0–2

Defence pairs

  1. bestMarincin – Carrick10:18

    xG 1.01–0.36 (74%)attempts 12–10goals 2–0

  2. Polak – Gardiner12:12

    xG 1.83–1.36 (57%)attempts 20–16goals 0–1

  3. Rielly – Zaitsev13:17

    xG 0.60–0.75 (45%)attempts 14–16goals 1–2

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TOR 6.1 xGVAN 3.1 xG
0123456P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TORVAN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 75/100 · #283 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.03 · 9 goals in reachComeback index 55% (winner's lowest chance)
VAN 100%5050%50TOR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +17 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 87% of the time.

TOR winsVAN wins

Simulated goal difference (TOR − VAN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).