Sat, Nov 5, 2016·Verizon Center, Washington
Florida Panthers 2, Washington Capitals 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 110 | 04 | 110 | 224 |
| WSH | 06 | 118 | 312 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:17FLAJared McCannAssists: Alexander Petrovic, Denis Malgin · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 10:40WSHT.J. OshieAssists: Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 2:32FLAReilly SmithPPAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Jason Demers · Backhand, 0.17 xG2–1
- P3 8:42WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Brooks Orpik, Nate Schmidt · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 10:58WSHT.J. OshieGWGAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Nate Schmidt · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 13:27WSHLars EllerAssists: John Carlson, Andre Burakovsky · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 19:29WSHDmitry Orlov: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:00FLAJared McCann: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:46FLAShane Harper: Interference2 min
- P2 11:05FLAAaron Ekblad: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:00WSHMarcus Johansson: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 3:30FLAJonathan Marchessault: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestSceviour – Smith – Trocheck6:29
xG 0.47–0.08 (86%)attempts 11–2goals 0–1
- Sceviour – Marchessault – Barkov5:57
xG 0.15–0.09 (62%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- MacKenzie – Harper – McKegg6:52
xG 0.12–0.07 (63%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Smith – Trocheck3:23
xG 0.02–0.01 (65%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Petrovic – Pysyk11:21
xG 0.21–0.17 (55%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Matheson – Ekblad15:39
xG 0.64–0.83 (44%)attempts 14–16goals 0–3
- Yandle – Demers14:13
xG 0.13–0.41 (24%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Kuznetsov – Burakovsky2:45
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Eller – Wilson – Burakovsky5:57
xG 0.27–0.16 (63%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Williams – Johansson – Kuznetsov5:29
xG 0.10–0.06 (62%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom4:58
xG 0.17–0.16 (50%)attempts 3–6goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Schmidt13:45
xG 0.53–0.26 (67%)attempts 14–7goals 2–1
- Carlson – Orlov15:04
xG 0.56–0.44 (56%)attempts 11–14goals 2–0
- Niskanen – Alzner16:57
xG 0.10–0.41 (20%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).