Sun, Nov 6, 2016·Honda Center, Anaheim
Calgary Flames 1, Anaheim Ducks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 112 | 010 | 04 | 126 |
| ANA | 19 | 27 | 15 | 421 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:29ANAClayton StonerAssists: Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 16:15CGYAlex ChiassonAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan · Tip-in, 0.18 xG1–1
- P2 3:18ANARyan KeslerPPGWGAssists: Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 7:54ANAAndrew CoglianoAssists: Jakob Silfverberg, Josh Manson · Tip-in, 0.23 xG1–3
- P3 13:29ANARyan KeslerPPAssists: Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–4
Penalties (15)
- P1 4:28ANAAntoine Vermette: Hooking2 min
- P1 6:48CGYDeryk Engelland: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:48ANAJared Boll: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:23CGYMikael Backlund: Cross checking2 min
- P1 16:23ANAAntoine Vermette: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:00ANAKorbinian Holzer: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:52CGYDougie Hamilton: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 8:45CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:45ANAJoseph Cramarossa: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:38CGYMikael Backlund: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:38ANARyan Garbutt: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:26CGYBrett Kulak: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:04CGYMark Giordano: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 19:13CGYSam Bennett: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:13ANARyan Kesler: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bennett won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestChiasson – Gaudreau – Monahan11:52
xG 0.59–0.29 (67%)attempts 12–4goals 1–1
- Stajan – Hamilton – Ferland5:42
xG 0.11–0.05 (70%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Stajan – Hamilton – Shinkaruk4:23
xG 0.13–0.08 (63%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Ferland – Bennett2:55
xG 0.00–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Brodie18:22
xG 0.41–0.20 (68%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Engelland – Kulak10:05
xG 0.27–0.17 (61%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Hamilton – Kulak2:44
xG 0.07–0.24 (22%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Ritchie10:36
xG 0.47–0.08 (86%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Kesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg11:44
xG 0.50–0.34 (59%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
- Boll – Wagner – Garbutt5:46
xG 0.10–0.15 (39%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Vermette – Cramarossa – Rakell8:58
xG 0.10–0.25 (28%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Manson12:25
xG 0.68–0.11 (86%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Stoner – Vatanen14:32
xG 0.44–0.17 (71%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
- Bieksa – Holzer14:07
xG 0.20–0.74 (21%)attempts 5–19goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).