Tue, Nov 8, 2016·Madison Square Garden, New York
Vancouver Canucks 5, New York Rangers 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 06 | 111 | 412 | 529 |
| NYR | 07 | 16 | 213 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:20NYRPavel BuchnevichAssists: Jesper Fast, Brady Skjei · Snap, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 15:18VANLoui ErikssonAssists: Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–1
- P3 2:29VANHenrik SedinAssists: Erik Gudbranson, Derek Dorsett · Slap, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 5:27NYRRick NashPPAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Kevin Hayes · Tip-in, 0.17 xG2–2
- P3 9:21VANAlexandre BurrowsAssists: Bo Horvat, Sven Baertschi · Wrist, 0.30 xG3–2
- P3 13:08VANSven BaertschiGWGAssists: Jack Skille, Michael Chaput · Tip-in, 0.09 xG4–2
- P3 16:54VANAlexandre BurrowsENAssists: Bo Horvat, Brendan Gaunce · Wrist, 0.64 xG5–2
- P3 19:01NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.08 xG5–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:05VANBo Horvat: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:58NYRJ.T. Miller: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 19:22VANNikita Tryamkin: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:56VANLuca Sbisa: Interference2 min
- P3 0:21VANHenrik Sedin: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:27VANMarkus Granlund: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P3 10:13NYRRick Nash: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sedin won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBurrows – Baertschi – Horvat7:57
xG 0.69–0.28 (71%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
- Skille – Chaput – Gaunce6:12
xG 0.02–0.11 (18%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Dorsett – Sutter – Granlund9:44
xG 0.27–0.46 (37%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Sedin – Sedin – Eriksson11:38
xG 0.25–0.65 (28%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Hutton13:31
xG 0.70–0.41 (63%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
- Edler – Stecher15:29
xG 0.50–0.53 (49%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Hutton – Tryamkin2:48
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestGrabner – Hayes – Miller8:20
xG 0.47–0.13 (78%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Nash – Stepan – Vesey6:45
xG 0.26–0.03 (89%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Kreider – Zuccarello – Zibanejad7:36
xG 0.23–0.12 (66%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Pirri – Fast – Buchnevich6:22
xG 0.29–0.21 (58%)attempts 3–3goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Holden14:20
xG 0.46–0.25 (65%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Girardi – McDonagh12:14
xG 0.16–0.29 (35%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- Klein – Skjei13:23
xG 0.61–0.86 (42%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).