Tue, Nov 8, 2016·Pepsi Center, Denver
Arizona Coyotes 4, Colorado Avalanche 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 111 | 29 | 15 | 425 |
| COL | 011 | 27 | 09 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:28ARIJordan MartinookAssists: Radim Vrbata, Jamie McGinn · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 0:38COLRene BourquePPAssists: Erik Johnson, Mikhail Grigorenko · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 6:09COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 16:15ARITony DeAngeloAssists: Max Domi, Anthony Duclair · Slap, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 17:26ARIMax DomiGWGAssists: Connor Murphy · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 0:11ARIJordan MartinookPPAssists: Radim Vrbata, Max Domi · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:29COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:29ARIRyan White: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:47COLNikita Zadorov: Elbowing2 min
- P1 15:00COLCody McLeod: Interference2 min
- P2 0:26ARIJordan Martinook: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 0:00COLMikko Rantanen: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 10:05COLRene Bourque: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Martinook won the faceoff against Duchene
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestVrbata – McGinn – Martinook10:23
xG 0.51–0.24 (68%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Duclair – Domi – Dvorak10:55
xG 0.33–0.25 (57%)attempts 15–9goals 2–0
- Doan – Richardson – Rieder13:03
xG 0.17–0.21 (44%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- White – Gaudet – Crouse9:56
xG 0.01–0.13 (9%)attempts 2–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Murphy18:01
xG 0.46–0.27 (63%)attempts 22–16goals 1–0
- Goligoski – DeAngelo15:27
xG 0.47–0.32 (59%)attempts 12–12goals 2–1
- Schenn – Chychrun15:14
xG 0.09–0.25 (25%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Soderberg – Landeskog11:33
xG 0.26–0.11 (70%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Mitchell – McLeod – Colborne6:09
xG 0.18–0.07 (73%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Duchene – MacKinnon – Rantanen13:07
xG 0.18–0.35 (33%)attempts 10–14goals 1–2
- Bourque – Grigorenko – Martinsen7:58
xG 0.12–0.36 (25%)attempts 5–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWiercioch – Barrie4:02
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 1–0
- Johnson – Barrie2:35
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Wiercioch12:55
xG 0.13–0.09 (58%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).