Thu, Nov 10, 2016·BB&T Center, Sunrise
San Jose Sharks 4, Florida Panthers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 111 | 18 | 210 | 429 |
| FLA | 211 | 06 | 07 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:09FLAJason DemersAssists: Jared McCann · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 7:26FLAJason DemersAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Jaromir Jagr · Snap, 0.29 xG0–2
- P1 16:18SJSBrent BurnsUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 1:53SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Joel Ward · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 8:53SJSTommy WingelsGWGAssists: Chris Tierney · Backhand, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 19:03SJSLogan CoutureENAssists: Justin Braun · Wrist, 0.65 xG4–2
Penalties (3)
- P2 5:45FLAJason Demers: Holding2 min
- P2 7:11FLAAaron Ekblad: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:16SJSJoel Ward: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Trocheck won the faceoff against Pavelski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestCouture – Boedker – Donskoi5:03
xG 0.33–0.10 (77%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Marleau – Hertl – Labanc4:10
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Marleau – Boedker – Hertl7:54
xG 0.18–0.20 (48%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Couture – Donskoi – Labanc8:33
xG 0.25–0.27 (48%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Braun19:06
xG 0.50–0.39 (56%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Schlemko – Dillon16:04
xG 0.44–0.36 (55%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Martin – Burns15:53
xG 0.65–1.13 (36%)attempts 13–15goals 2–2
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestSceviour – McCann – Malgin10:18
xG 0.62–0.18 (78%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Jokinen – Smith – Barkov2:33
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Jagr – Marchessault – Barkov12:33
xG 0.46–0.41 (53%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
- MacKenzie – Harper – McKegg10:28
xG 0.02–0.27 (7%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Demers15:38
xG 1.10–0.74 (60%)attempts 16–15goals 2–1
- Petrovic – Pysyk14:14
xG 0.58–0.36 (62%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Demers – Matheson2:30
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).