Thu, Nov 10, 2016·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
St. Louis Blues 1, Nashville Predators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 111 | 06 | 07 | 124 |
| NSH | 09 | 110 | 29 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:59STLJaden SchwartzAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 18:26NSHCalle JarnkrokAssists: Colin Wilson, Matt Irwin · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 3:44NSHJames NealGWGAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Pontus Aberg · Snap, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 4:50NSHCalle JarnkrokAssists: Mike Fisher, Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:20STLJay Bouwmeester: Interference2 min
- P2 10:54STLJaden Schwartz: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:42STLCarter Hutton: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 15:25STLKevin Shattenkirk: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 0:31NSHP.K. Subban: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:16STLCarl Gunnarsson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 17:39NSHCraig Smith: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Stastny – Yakupov11:39
xG 0.41–0.27 (60%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Lehtera – Tarasenko – Schwartz13:43
xG 0.56–0.52 (52%)attempts 19–14goals 1–0
- Upshall – Brodziak – Reaves3:57
xG 0.11–0.34 (25%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Berglund – Perron – Jaskin8:50
xG 0.11–0.34 (25%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Pietrangelo14:26
xG 0.45–0.34 (57%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
- Shattenkirk – Gunnarsson11:14
xG 0.37–0.49 (43%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Parayko – Lindbohm10:35
xG 0.35–0.47 (43%)attempts 14–10goals 1–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestNeal – Johansen – Arvidsson7:11
xG 0.53–0.17 (75%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Ribeiro – Wilson – Smith9:11
xG 0.42–0.35 (54%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Fisher – Jarnkrok – Forsberg3:14
xG 0.14–0.11 (58%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Jarnkrok – Watson – Sissons2:25
xG 0.09–0.11 (44%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Ekholm15:29
xG 0.78–0.55 (59%)attempts 15–20goals 2–1
- Josi – Ellis15:45
xG 0.81–0.65 (56%)attempts 17–14goals 0–0
- Josi – Ekholm2:25
xG 0.01–0.02 (34%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).