Thu, Nov 10, 2016·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Winnipeg Jets 3, Arizona Coyotes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 13 | 19 | 115 | 327 |
| ARI | 18 | 011 | 16 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:50WPGAndrew CoppAssists: Mark Scheifele, Toby Enstrom · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 9:48ARIRadim VrbataAssists: Jordan Martinook, Jamie McGinn · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 10:18WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Nic Petan, Tyler Myers · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 16:46WPGNikolaj EhlersGWGAssists: Patrik Laine · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 19:58ARITobias RiederAssists: Max Domi, Shane Doan · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P2 3:33ARIBrad Richardson: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:17ARIJakob Chychrun: Holding2 min
- P2 10:22WPGChris Thorburn: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:22ARILuke Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:43WPGDustin Byfuglien: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Martinook
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Petan – Connor11:03
xG 0.59–0.32 (65%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Scheifele – Ehlers – Laine13:10
xG 0.36–0.29 (55%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
- Thorburn – Burmistrov – Dano7:26
xG 0.32–0.31 (51%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Lowry – Copp – Tanev10:16
xG 0.19–0.24 (44%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestByfuglien – Morrissey19:47
xG 1.15–0.51 (69%)attempts 21–12goals 1–0
- Postma – Chiarot10:41
xG 0.60–0.15 (80%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Myers16:57
xG 0.45–0.63 (42%)attempts 15–20goals 2–1
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDuclair – Domi – Dvorak12:41
xG 0.42–0.24 (63%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- White – Dauphin – Crouse6:33
xG 0.24–0.23 (51%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Vrbata – McGinn – Martinook12:26
xG 0.26–0.62 (30%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Doan – Richardson – Rieder10:42
xG 0.20–0.61 (25%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Ekman-Larsson – Murphy18:46
xG 0.46–0.52 (47%)attempts 15–14goals 1–1
- DeAngelo – Chychrun3:30
xG 0.42–0.55 (43%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Schenn – Chychrun10:43
xG 0.27–0.42 (39%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).