Fri, Nov 11, 2016·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Philadelphia Flyers 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 211 | 116 | 06 | 333 |
| TOR | 27 | 07 | 49 | 623 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:54TORNazem KadriAssists: Morgan Rielly, Nikita Zaitsev · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 3:59PHIWayne SimmondsPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Shayne Gostisbehere · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–1
- P1 4:25PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Radko Gudas, Michael Del Zotto · Backhand, 0.05 xG2–1
- P1 19:08TORMorgan RiellyPPAssists: Mitch Marner, James van Riemsdyk · Snap, 0.20 xG2–2
- P2 2:53PHIWayne SimmondsSHAssists: Sean Couturier · Snap, 0.20 xG3–2
- P3 4:03TORMartin MarincinAssists: Morgan Rielly, Nazem Kadri · Slap, 0.03 xG3–3
- P3 8:34TORZach HymanGWGAssists: Auston Matthews, Connor Carrick · Snap, 0.27 xG3–4
- P3 11:32TORLeo KomarovSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.21 xG3–5
- P3 16:17TORMitch MarnerPPAssists: Morgan Rielly, Tyler Bozak · Snap, 0.13 xG3–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:51TORJames van Riemsdyk: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 10:50PHIMichael Del Zotto: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 18:16PHISean Couturier: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 18:25PHIChris VandeVelde: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 2:00PHIMark Streit: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:44TORRoman Polak: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:20PHIShayne Gostisbehere: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestVandeVelde – Weise – Cousins8:44
xG 0.34–0.25 (57%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Giroux – Simmonds – Schenn12:17
xG 0.47–0.51 (48%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
- Voracek – Couturier – Konecny11:52
xG 0.31–0.52 (37%)attempts 10–12goals 1–1
- Read – Bellemare – Lyubimov7:53
xG 0.12–1.31 (8%)attempts 5–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – Provorov12:29
xG 0.50–0.30 (62%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
- Gudas – Gostisbehere2:08
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Provorov2:17
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner12:12
xG 0.84–0.14 (86%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Hyman – Brown – Matthews5:43
xG 0.82–0.19 (81%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Komarov – Kadri – Nylander5:49
xG 0.35–0.19 (64%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Martin – Smith – Soshnikov9:15
xG 0.28–0.35 (44%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Marincin15:20
xG 1.08–0.34 (76%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
- Gardiner – Carrick13:31
xG 0.92–0.42 (69%)attempts 16–11goals 1–1
- Rielly – Zaitsev18:43
xG 0.74–0.83 (47%)attempts 23–19goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).