Sat, Nov 12, 2016·Prudential Center, Newark
Buffalo Sabres 2, New Jersey Devils 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 07 | 110 | 16 | 223 |
| NJD | 111 | 29 | 17 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:01NJDKyle QuinceyAssists: Damon Severson, Adam Henrique · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 3:41BUFMarcus FolignoAssists: Brian Gionta · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 6:11NJDNick LappinAssists: Taylor Hall, Ben Lovejoy · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 11:17NJDKyle PalmieriGWGAssists: Damon Severson, Andy Greene · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
- P3 6:32NJDJohn MooreAssists: Adam Henrique, Taylor Hall · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–4
- P3 9:43BUFMatt MoulsonAssists: Derek Grant, Cody Franson · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:52NJDJacob Josefson: High sticking2 min
- P1 6:22BUFEvander Kane: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:56NJDKyle Palmieri: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:56BUFCody Franson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 5:32BUFEvander Kane: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:14NJDDamon Severson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 6:52BUFNick Baptiste: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:49BUFCasey Nelson: Holding2 min
- P3 18:08BUFMarcus Foligno: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larsson won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGionta – Foligno – Larsson12:02
xG 0.23–0.01 (96%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Moulson – Girgensons – Carrier2:57
xG 0.25–0.05 (83%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Okposo – Carrier – Reinhart4:46
xG 0.07–0.00 (93%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Okposo – Kane – Reinhart5:24
xG 0.10–0.11 (48%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFalk – Nelson9:30
xG 0.43–0.24 (64%)attempts 10–2goals 1–1
- Franson – McCabe18:08
xG 0.25–0.16 (60%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Gorges – Ristolainen15:08
xG 0.22–0.21 (51%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestHenrique – Palmieri – Bennett11:32
xG 0.20–0.00 (98%)attempts 10–4goals 2–0
- Fiddler – Kalinin – Lappin10:16
xG 0.20–0.11 (65%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Zajac – Hall12:15
xG 0.07–0.10 (43%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Josefson – Smith-Pelly – Zacha7:30
xG 0.20–0.27 (42%)attempts 6–5goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Greene – Severson13:36
xG 0.13–0.13 (50%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Lovejoy – Auvitu13:20
xG 0.25–0.44 (36%)attempts 7–9goals 1–2
- Quincey – Moore11:32
xG 0.06–0.35 (14%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).