Sat, Nov 12, 2016·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Anaheim Ducks 0, Nashville Predators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 011 | 09 | 07 | 027 |
| NSH | 19 | 39 | 19 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:57NSHRyan EllisGWGAssists: Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 12:13NSHJames NealAssists: Viktor Arvidsson · Slap, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 15:53NSHColton SissonsSHAssists: Viktor Arvidsson, Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–3
- P2 17:00NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Ryan Johansen, Yannick Weber · Snap, 0.11 xG0–4
- P3 6:06NSHJames NealPPAssists: Mike Fisher, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–5
Penalties (13)
- P1 1:38ANAAntoine Vermette: Slashing2 min
- P1 4:11NSHCody Bass: Holding2 min
- P1 11:29ANAAndrew Cogliano: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:24NSHP.K. Subban: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 8:56ANAJared Boll: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:56NSHCody Bass: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:28NSHP.K. Subban: Elbowing2 min
- P2 14:27NSHMike Fisher: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:23ANAJosh Manson: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:23NSHCody Bass: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:29ANARyan Garbutt: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:50ANAJosh Manson: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:07NSHMattias Ekholm: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Ritchie7:38
xG 0.59–0.34 (63%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Vermette – Cramarossa – Rakell6:24
xG 0.11–0.06 (65%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Rakell2:09
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Boll – Sgarbossa – Garbutt5:34
xG 0.03–0.22 (13%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStoner – Vatanen13:51
xG 0.77–0.72 (52%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
- Bieksa – Lindholm13:23
xG 0.14–0.11 (56%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Fowler – Manson11:09
xG 0.06–0.63 (8%)attempts 5–9goals 0–3
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestNeal – Johansen – Forsberg4:18
xG 0.36–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–3goals 2–0
- Neal – Johansen – Arvidsson5:00
xG 0.34–0.08 (80%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Ribeiro – Bass – Sissons2:16
xG 0.16–0.02 (90%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Wilson – Smith6:22
xG 0.09–0.01 (88%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Irwin10:25
xG 0.46–0.15 (75%)attempts 13–6goals 2–0
- Subban – Ekholm14:26
xG 0.53–0.28 (66%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Josi – Ellis13:56
xG 0.54–0.32 (63%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).