Tue, Nov 15, 2016·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Nashville Predators 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 111 | 110 | 013 | 234 |
| TOR | 211 | 115 | 36 | 632 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:04TORMitch MarnerAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Tyler Bozak · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 14:04TORJames van RiemsdykAssists: Tyler Bozak, Mitch Marner · Snap, 0.10 xG0–2
- P1 17:53NSHJames NealAssists: Ryan Johansen, Mattias Ekholm · Snap, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 7:52TORJames van RiemsdykGWGAssists: Tyler Bozak, Matt Hunwick · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–3
- P2 16:09NSHViktor ArvidssonAssists: Colin Wilson · Snap, 0.23 xG2–3
- P3 7:18TORLeo KomarovAssists: Martin Marincin, Connor Brown · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–4
- P3 13:38TORJames van RiemsdykAssists: Mitch Marner, Tyler Bozak · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–5
- P3 15:23TORWilliam NylanderUnassisted · Snap, 0.08 xG2–6
Penalties (5)
- P2 2:25NSHMike Fisher: Instigator2 min
- P2 2:25NSHMike Fisher: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:25NSHMike Fisher: Misconduct10 min
- P2 2:25TORRoman Polak: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:47TORLeo Komarov: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestFisher – Jarnkrok – Arvidsson3:18
xG 0.36–0.11 (76%)attempts 8–2goals 0–1
- Neal – Wilson – Johansen2:03
xG 0.09–0.03 (77%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Bass – Watson – Sissons6:32
xG 0.01–0.01 (45%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Fisher – Jarnkrok – Forsberg6:20
xG 0.31–0.32 (50%)attempts 6–5goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Ekholm19:54
xG 1.31–1.23 (52%)attempts 28–15goals 0–3
- Weber – Irwin11:16
xG 0.32–0.37 (46%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Josi – Ellis19:58
xG 0.78–1.50 (34%)attempts 17–25goals 1–3
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKomarov – Kadri – Brown13:33
xG 0.95–0.67 (59%)attempts 14–15goals 1–1
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner12:34
xG 1.04–0.88 (54%)attempts 12–20goals 4–0
- Martin – Smith – Soshnikov8:36
xG 0.16–0.01 (95%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Hyman – Nylander – Matthews13:43
xG 0.85–1.00 (46%)attempts 15–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHunwick – Marincin11:52
xG 0.83–0.46 (64%)attempts 12–12goals 2–1
- Rielly – Zaitsev18:05
xG 1.06–0.89 (54%)attempts 17–19goals 2–0
- Gardiner – Rielly2:20
xG 0.11–0.03 (81%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).